Research weekly
American Journal of Applied Sciences 10 (6): 536-541, 2013
ISSN: 1546-9239
©2013 Science Publication doi:10.3844/ajassp.2013.536.541 Published Online 10 (6) 2013 (http://www.thescipub.com/ajas.toc)
NEW CAR DEMAND MODELING AND
FORECASTING USING BASS DIFFUSION MODEL
Zuhaimy Ismail and Noratikah Abu
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia
Received 2013-02-08, Revised 2013-02-28; Accepted 2013-06-03
ABSTRACT
Forecasting model of new product demand has been developed and applied to forecast new vehicle demand in Malaysia. Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. The building of Bass diffusion model for forecasting new product within the Malaysian society is presented in this study. The proposed model represents the spread level of new Proton car among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new car. With the limited amount of data available for the new car, a robust Bass model was developed to forecast the sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation shows that the proposed diffusion model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of new Proton car. The proposed diffusion model is shown to forecast more effectively and accurately even with insufficient previous data on the new product.
Keywords: Bass Diffusion Model, Forecasting, New Product, Forecast Accuracy considered. First, new product forecasting has low credibility and low accuracy level due to the lack of or no historical data but only based on certain assumptions.
Secondly, the time needed to develop forecast of new
product
ISSN: 1546-9239
©2013 Science Publication doi:10.3844/ajassp.2013.536.541 Published Online 10 (6) 2013 (http://www.thescipub.com/ajas.toc)
NEW CAR DEMAND MODELING AND
FORECASTING USING BASS DIFFUSION MODEL
Zuhaimy Ismail and Noratikah Abu
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science,
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia
Received 2013-02-08, Revised 2013-02-28; Accepted 2013-06-03
ABSTRACT
Forecasting model of new product demand has been developed and applied to forecast new vehicle demand in Malaysia. Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. The building of Bass diffusion model for forecasting new product within the Malaysian society is presented in this study. The proposed model represents the spread level of new Proton car among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new car. With the limited amount of data available for the new car, a robust Bass model was developed to forecast the sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed model and numerical calculation shows that the proposed diffusion model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of new Proton car. The proposed diffusion model is shown to forecast more effectively and accurately even with insufficient previous data on the new product.
Keywords: Bass Diffusion Model, Forecasting, New Product, Forecast Accuracy considered. First, new product forecasting has low credibility and low accuracy level due to the lack of or no historical data but only based on certain assumptions.
Secondly, the time needed to develop forecast of new
product
References: Bass, F.M., 1969. A new product growth for model consumer durables Kim, D.H., Y.G. Shin, S.S. Park and D.S. Jang, 2009. Zuhaimy Ismail and Noratikah Abu / American Journal of Applied Sciences 10 (6): 536-541, 2013 Radojicic, V