Aldi Forecasting
Forecasting Techniques Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner, 2009). The qualitative method of forecasting is one in which an educated opinion of relevant individuals is taken. This could be from panels of experts, surveys, management, or any other regarded and reputable source of knowledge. The time series forecasting method is part of the quantitative forecasting method in which the analysis of historical data; usually measured within successive intervals or over successive periods is used. The time series forecasting method makes use of assumptions of past patterns observable within data, data points from which data is derived from for the forecasting. Casual forecasting utilizes either known or perceived relationships between the factors of forecast and either internal or external factors. The peculiarity of the German market when it comes to getting information for forecasting purposes for Aldi therefore calls for a combination of the three types of forecasting techniques in order to effectively and efficiently meets the customers’ requirements (forecasting, n.d). This is necessitated by the peculiarity of the market where not too much information is available from an academic angle. The Delphi method as well as market research within the qualitative research method would be useful when utilizing panels of experts, test markets and surveys to gather required information that can be put together to aid in forecasting. Being a new market in which the American retail store has no previous experience in, the questions asked would be administered anonymously. This is an expensive and time consuming exercise, but in
References: Bonner, A. (2009). Forecasting models for the german office market. Published dissertation, School of Business Administration, Economics Law & Social Science, University of St. Gallen, St. Gallen, Switzerland. Retrieved January 16, 2011 from http://www1.unisg.ch/www/edis.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/3561/$FILE/dis3561.pdf Forecasting (n.d.). Retrieved January 16, 2011 from http://www.uoguelph.ca/~dsparlin/forecast.htm#CAUSAL%20FORECASTING%20METHODS