Pest of Uk Grocery Industry
The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy
Garry Young
garry.young@bankofengland.co.uk
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England. I am grateful to seminar participants at the Bank of England, Financial Services Authority and National Institute of Economic and Social Research and two anonymous referees for comments on earlier drafts. This paper has been prepared as background to a study on the implications of an ageing population for the financial services industry and its regulation. This wider study is being conducted by the Financial Services Authority in co-operation with the Bank of England.
Copies of working papers may be obtained from Publications Group, Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH; telephone 020 7601 4030, fax 020 7601 3298, e-mail mapublications@bankofengland.co.uk
Working papers are also available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/wp/index.html
The Bank of England’s working paper series is externally refereed.
© Bank of England 2002 ISSN 1368-5562
Contents Abstract Summary 1. Introduction 2. Demographic change in the United Kingdom 3. Assessing the impact of demographic change 4. The likely impact of demographic change on asset prices and rates of return 5. Conclusion References Charts 5-7 5 7 9 10 19 29 34 38 40
3
Abstract This paper considers the likely development of aggregate living standards in the United Kingdom over the course of this century and some of the risks to this outlook. It argues that even under relatively cautious assumptions about technological progress and capital accumulation, aggregate living standards (as measured by GDP per head) are set to double over the next 50 years. While there are clear risks to this aggregate outlook, these would be present even without demographic change. The paper also discusses the risks to the living standards of individuals and individual cohorts. These risks
Garry Young
garry.young@bankofengland.co.uk
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England. I am grateful to seminar participants at the Bank of England, Financial Services Authority and National Institute of Economic and Social Research and two anonymous referees for comments on earlier drafts. This paper has been prepared as background to a study on the implications of an ageing population for the financial services industry and its regulation. This wider study is being conducted by the Financial Services Authority in co-operation with the Bank of England.
Copies of working papers may be obtained from Publications Group, Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH; telephone 020 7601 4030, fax 020 7601 3298, e-mail mapublications@bankofengland.co.uk
Working papers are also available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/wp/index.html
The Bank of England’s working paper series is externally refereed.
© Bank of England 2002 ISSN 1368-5562
Contents Abstract Summary 1. Introduction 2. Demographic change in the United Kingdom 3. Assessing the impact of demographic change 4. The likely impact of demographic change on asset prices and rates of return 5. Conclusion References Charts 5-7 5 7 9 10 19 29 34 38 40
3
Abstract This paper considers the likely development of aggregate living standards in the United Kingdom over the course of this century and some of the risks to this outlook. It argues that even under relatively cautious assumptions about technological progress and capital accumulation, aggregate living standards (as measured by GDP per head) are set to double over the next 50 years. While there are clear risks to this aggregate outlook, these would be present even without demographic change. The paper also discusses the risks to the living standards of individuals and individual cohorts. These risks
References: 38 De Nardi, M, Imrohoroglu, S and Sargent, T (2001), ‘Saving and pension reform in general equilibrium models’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol