The Impact of Forces Driving Global Change on the Global Economy and South Africa by 2014
Name: Ongama Mtimka
Student Number: 206516430
Programme Name: Masters in South African Politics and Political Economy
Module Title and Code: Risk and Scenario Studies SLP 420
Title of Assignment: What are the most important forces driving global change. How will these forces shape the political economy of the world by 2014 and which of these forces are most likely to affect South Africa and why?
This essay seeks to identify what the most important forces driving global change are; how these forces will shape the political economy of the world by 2014 and which of these forces are most likely to affect South Africa and why? However before attempting to achieve this requirement it will be explained why such concerns about the future are critical to interrogate because such is not common sense like many would assume. Not all people believe it is necessary to attempt to predict or even plan for the future because the future “is not in our control”, “no one knows about the future”. In fact, although all human beings do prepare potential reactions to anticipated events, whether they call it budgeting or planning, some, be they individuals, organisations or countries, are often caught off-guard by many events. The attacks on the World Trade Centre in 2001 are cases in point. Therefore it is important for this essay to first briefly explain why we should interrogate the future; what methods we can use given the complex nature of social phenomena. It is only then that I will attempt to achieve the requirement of this essay because all methodological issues, which are useful for this essay, would have been covered in that first section. In order to answer the critical questions raised here I will first identify and discuss each force affecting global change explaining why I consider it important and how will it, in combination with other forces, influence global change. I will then identify and discuss those that are likely to affect South Africa in the next ten years
Student Number: 206516430
Programme Name: Masters in South African Politics and Political Economy
Module Title and Code: Risk and Scenario Studies SLP 420
Title of Assignment: What are the most important forces driving global change. How will these forces shape the political economy of the world by 2014 and which of these forces are most likely to affect South Africa and why?
This essay seeks to identify what the most important forces driving global change are; how these forces will shape the political economy of the world by 2014 and which of these forces are most likely to affect South Africa and why? However before attempting to achieve this requirement it will be explained why such concerns about the future are critical to interrogate because such is not common sense like many would assume. Not all people believe it is necessary to attempt to predict or even plan for the future because the future “is not in our control”, “no one knows about the future”. In fact, although all human beings do prepare potential reactions to anticipated events, whether they call it budgeting or planning, some, be they individuals, organisations or countries, are often caught off-guard by many events. The attacks on the World Trade Centre in 2001 are cases in point. Therefore it is important for this essay to first briefly explain why we should interrogate the future; what methods we can use given the complex nature of social phenomena. It is only then that I will attempt to achieve the requirement of this essay because all methodological issues, which are useful for this essay, would have been covered in that first section. In order to answer the critical questions raised here I will first identify and discuss each force affecting global change explaining why I consider it important and how will it, in combination with other forces, influence global change. I will then identify and discuss those that are likely to affect South Africa in the next ten years
References: Batini, N., Callen, T., and McKibbin, W. 2006. The Global Impact of Demographic Change Capra, F. 1983. The Turning Point: Science, Society and the Rising Culture. London: Fontana. Drainville, A.C. 2004. Contesting Globalisation: Space and Place in the World Economy. Habib, A. 2005. Don’t be so certain. Financial Mail 2 December pp 44 – 45. Hammond, A.L. 1998. Which World?: Scenarios For the 21st Century. Washington D.C: Ireland Press. Helleiner, G.K. 1998. Private Capital Flows and Development: The Role of National and International Policies Macleod, F. 2006. Ministries aim to trash green laws. Mail and Guardian 17 March pp 7. In World Watch Institute, 2005. Sate of the World: Global Security 2005. London: Earthscan. National Intelligence Council, 2002. Global Trends 2015. United States of America: Central Intelligence Council. Radar, M. M, 1979. Marx’s Interpretation of History. New York: Oxford University Press. Scott-Armstrong, J. 1985. Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer. Canada: John Wiley & Sons Inc. Sellon, G.H. 2004. Global Demographic Change: Economic Impacts and Policy Challenges.