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of
by Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
CENTER for the STUDY of INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Agency 1999
This book was prepared primarily for the use of US Government officials, and the format, coverage, and content were designed to meet their specific requirements. Because this book is now out of print, this Portable Document File (PDF) is formatted for two-sided printing to facilitate desktop publishing. It may be used by US Government agencies to make copies for government purposes and by non-governmental organizations to make copies for educational purposes. Because this book may be subject to copyright restriction, copies may not be made for any commercial purpose. This book will be available at www.odci.gov/csi. All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in the main text of this book are those of the author. Similarly, all such statements in the Forward and the Introduction are those of the respective authors of those sections. Such statements of fact, opinion, or analysis do not necessarily reflect the official positions or views of the Central Intelligence Agency or any other component of the US Intelligence Community. Nothing in the contents of this book should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsement of factual statements or interpretations. ISBN 1 929667-00-0 Originally published in 1999.
iii
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
Author’s Preface ....................................................vi Foreword...............................................................ix Introduction .......................................................xiii PART I—OUR MENTAL MACHINERY...............1
Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking ...........................1 Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There To Be Seen?............................................7 Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?.........................................................17
PART
by Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
CENTER for the STUDY of INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Agency 1999
This book was prepared primarily for the use of US Government officials, and the format, coverage, and content were designed to meet their specific requirements. Because this book is now out of print, this Portable Document File (PDF) is formatted for two-sided printing to facilitate desktop publishing. It may be used by US Government agencies to make copies for government purposes and by non-governmental organizations to make copies for educational purposes. Because this book may be subject to copyright restriction, copies may not be made for any commercial purpose. This book will be available at www.odci.gov/csi. All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in the main text of this book are those of the author. Similarly, all such statements in the Forward and the Introduction are those of the respective authors of those sections. Such statements of fact, opinion, or analysis do not necessarily reflect the official positions or views of the Central Intelligence Agency or any other component of the US Intelligence Community. Nothing in the contents of this book should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsement of factual statements or interpretations. ISBN 1 929667-00-0 Originally published in 1999.
iii
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
Author’s Preface ....................................................vi Foreword...............................................................ix Introduction .......................................................xiii PART I—OUR MENTAL MACHINERY...............1
Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking ...........................1 Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There To Be Seen?............................................7 Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?.........................................................17
PART