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Basic Economatrics
BASIC ECONOMETRICS
FOURTH EDITION

Damodar N. Gujarati
United States Military Academy, West Point

Boston Burr Ridge, IL Dubuque, IA Madison, WI New York San Francisco St. Louis Bangkok Bogota Caracas Kuala Lumpur Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan Montreal New Delhi Santiago Seoul Singapore Sydney Taipei Toronto

McGraw-Hill Higher Education
A Division of The McGraw-Hill Companies

'EZ

BASIC ECONOMETRICS Published by McGraw-HiII/lrwin, a business unit of The McGraw-Hili Companies, Inc. 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, 10020. Copyright © 2003, 1995, 1988, 1978, by The McGraw-Hili Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGraw-Hili Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning. Some ancillaries, including electronic and print components, may not be available to customers outside the United States.

This book is printed on acid-free paper. domestic international
890DOC/DOC0987 67890DOC/DOC0987

ISBN: 978-0-07-233542-2 MHID: 0-07-233542-4 ISBN: 978-0-07-112342-6 MHID: 0-07-112342-3 Publisher: Gary Burke Executive sponsoring editor: Lucille Sutton Developmental editor: Aric Bright Marketing manager: Martin D. Quinn Associate project manager: Catherine R. Schultz Senior production supervisor: Lori Koetters Senior designer: Jenny EI-Shamy Media producer: Melissa Kansa Supplement producer: Erin Sauder Cover design: Jamie O'Neal Typeface: 10/12 New Aster Compositor: Interactive Composition Corporation Printer: R. R. Donnelley & Sons Company

Library of Congress Control Number: 2001099577

INTERNATIONAL EDITION ISBN 0-07-112342-3 Copyright © 2003. Exclusive rights by The McGraw-Hili Companies, Inc. for manufacture and export. This book cannot be re-exported from the

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    Acquisitions and Development Editor: Jeff Kellum Technical Editor: Sondra Schneider Production Editor: Rachel Meyers Copy Editor: Tiffany Taylor Production Manager: Tim Tate Vice President and Executive Group Publisher: Richard Swadley Vice President and Executive Publisher: Joseph B. Wikert Vice President and Publisher: Neil Edde Media Project Supervisor: Laura Atkinson Media Development Specialist: Steve Kudirka Media Quality Assurance: Angie Denny Book Designers: Judy Fung and Bill Gibson Compositor: Craig Woods, Happenstance Type-O-Rama Proofreader: Nancy Riddiough Indexer: Ted Laux Anniversary Logo Design: Richard Pacifico Cover Designer: Ryan Sneed Copyright © 2007 by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana Published simultaneously in Canada ISBN-13: 978-0-7821-4437-6 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Legal Department, Wiley Publishing, Inc., 10475 Crosspoint Blvd., Indianapolis, IN 46256, (317) 572-3447, fax (317) 572-4355, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: The publisher and the author make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and…

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