choosing the alternative with the "best of the best" is the approach called: A) maximax B) maximin C) Laplace D) minimax regret E) expected monetary value Answer: A Page Ref: 323 Topic: Decision Making Under Uncertainty Difficulty: Moderate 2) Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the "best of the worst" is the approach called: A) maximax B) maximin C) Laplace D) minimax regret E) expected monetary value Answer: B Page Ref: 323 Topic: Decision Making Under
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to: 1. Learn about decision making under certainty‚ under uncertainty‚ and under risk. 2. Learn several strategies for decision-making under uncertainty‚ including expected payoff‚ expected opportunity loss‚ maximin‚ maximax‚ and minimax regret. 3. Learn how to construct and analyze decision trees. 4. Understand aspects of utility theory. 5. Learn how to revise probabilities with sample information. CHAPTER OUTLINE
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Queueing theory is the mathematical study of waiting lines‚ or queues.[1] In queueing theory a model is constructed so that queue lengths and waiting times can be predicted.[1] Queueing theory started with research by Agner Krarup Erlang when he created models to describe the Copenhagen telephone exchange.[1] The ideas have since seen applications includingtelecommunications‚[2] traffic engineering‚ computing[3] and the design of factories‚ shops‚ offices and hospitals.[4] Contents [hide]
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DECISION QUIZZES 1. The value of perfect information is directly related to losses predicted with imperfect information. A. True B. False A. True B. False 2. EVPI is the expected financial value of the regret for the optimal decision under risk. A. True B. False A. True B. False 3. A decision tree branches out to include all of the possible decisions and all of the possible events we are capable of identifying. A. True
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May 2012 Master of Business Administration - Semester 2 MB 0048: “Operations Research” (4 credits) (Book ID: B1301) ASSIGNMENT- Set 1 Marks 60 Note: Each Question carries 10 marks. Answer all the questions. Marks 60 1. (a) What is linear programming problem? Ans: Linear programming (LP‚ or linear optimization) is a mathematical method for determining a way to achieve the best outcome (such as maximum profit or lowest cost) in a given mathematical model for some list of requirements
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Risk Reduction Techniques in Management Decision Making 11/3/2009 ------------------------------------------------- 1. Sensitivity Analysis This is a technique that shows how different variables affect the value of a particular variable. For example‚ it shows the affect on profit following a change in sales price and/or volume. Pros: Sensitivity analysis shows the sensitivity of economic payoffs to uncertain values such as discount rates. Management can see the profitability of a
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TABLE OF CONTENTS CONCEPTS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 1 Definition Economic Risk Economic risk is the chance of loss because all possible outcomes and their associated probabilities are unknown.Actions taken in such a decision environment are purely speculative‚ such as the buy and sell decisions made by speculators in commodity‚ futures and option markets. All decision makers are equally likely to profit as well as to lose‚ luck is the sole determinant of success or failure. 2 Definition of
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Purdue University Leyla Ozsen IE 383 Fall 2005 DECISION ANALYSIS Making important decisions often requires treating major uncertainty‚ long time horizons‚ and complex value issues. To deal with such problems‚ the discipline of decision analysis was developed. The discipline comprises the philosophy‚ theory‚ methodology‚ and professional practice necessary to formalize the analysis of important decisions. Decision Analysis is a set of quantitative decision-making techniques for decision situations
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Decision Analysis Page 1 of 4 Decision Analysis Donna L. Christian‚ Strayer University Winter Quarter (MAT 540) Instructor: Mune Lokesh March 11‚ 2012 Decision Analysis Page 2 of 4 In business today‚ many decision-making situations occur under conditions of uncertainty. The demand for a product can be one number this week and double that number next week or vice versa. There are several decision-making techniques to aid the decision maker in dealing with these types of uncertainties
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should operate plants in US‚ Mexico‚ Canada b. At the maximin rule the firm should operate plants in US only c. The potential regret matrix is: OINC Passes OINC Fails OINC Stalls US only 10 million 0 2 million US and Mexico 5 million 3 million 2.5 million US‚ Mexico‚ Canada 0 5 million 0 And the maximum potential regrets are: US only 10 million US and Mexico 5 million US‚ Mexico‚ Canada 5 million Thus the firms minimax regret rule should operate either operate in US and Mexico
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