A Utilization Rate Analysis of Gas Import Cluster Emden Oudestatenzijl
A utilization rate analysis of import cluster Emden Oude Statenzijl.
Half empty or half full?
Johan F. Verlinden
Groningen, July 9, 2008
Masterthesis Econometrics Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen Supervisor: Dr. C. Praagman Co-assessor: Prof.dr.mr. C.J. Jepma
Abstract Gas Transport Services BV is the Transport System Operator of the Dutch Gas Transport Network. It is confronted with investment decisions that concern possible expansions of its network capacity. Therefore knowledge about the utilization rate of the network is vital to assess the need for additional investments. First we will attempt to model the utilization rate by tackling the problem bottom-up, that is, taking the behaviour of the individual shippers as a starting point and aggregating these results later on. It is assumed that these individual shippers make their decisions based on some unobservable factors. These factors will be exposed by performing a Time Series Factor Analysis based on the method proposed by Gilbert and Meijer (2005). This does not lead to a satisfactory model so a new hypothesis is formulated: All shippers behave independently of each other. This assumption is tested by performing a Monte Carlo simulation on the maximum cluster utilization rate. We find that in some years the simulation rejects the independence assumption in favour of the assumption of negatively correlated shipper behaviour. We conclude that although we do not find the reason for their behaviour, we do find the result that in some years their behaviour causes cluster maximum utilization rate to be lower than it would have been under independent behaviour.1
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For more information: johanv85@hotmail.com
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Preface
March 3 I started my intership at Gas Transport Services, NV Nederlandse Gasunie. For four and a half months I was given the opportunity to write my thesis and at the same time experience the gas business at the Market Monitoring Department. Now that I
Half empty or half full?
Johan F. Verlinden
Groningen, July 9, 2008
Masterthesis Econometrics Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen Supervisor: Dr. C. Praagman Co-assessor: Prof.dr.mr. C.J. Jepma
Abstract Gas Transport Services BV is the Transport System Operator of the Dutch Gas Transport Network. It is confronted with investment decisions that concern possible expansions of its network capacity. Therefore knowledge about the utilization rate of the network is vital to assess the need for additional investments. First we will attempt to model the utilization rate by tackling the problem bottom-up, that is, taking the behaviour of the individual shippers as a starting point and aggregating these results later on. It is assumed that these individual shippers make their decisions based on some unobservable factors. These factors will be exposed by performing a Time Series Factor Analysis based on the method proposed by Gilbert and Meijer (2005). This does not lead to a satisfactory model so a new hypothesis is formulated: All shippers behave independently of each other. This assumption is tested by performing a Monte Carlo simulation on the maximum cluster utilization rate. We find that in some years the simulation rejects the independence assumption in favour of the assumption of negatively correlated shipper behaviour. We conclude that although we do not find the reason for their behaviour, we do find the result that in some years their behaviour causes cluster maximum utilization rate to be lower than it would have been under independent behaviour.1
1
For more information: johanv85@hotmail.com
2
Preface
March 3 I started my intership at Gas Transport Services, NV Nederlandse Gasunie. For four and a half months I was given the opportunity to write my thesis and at the same time experience the gas business at the Market Monitoring Department. Now that I
References: 53 K., Pearson (1899)