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World Energy Scenario 2012

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World Energy Scenario 2012
World Energy Outlook 2012
Presentation to the press London, 12 November 2012

© OECD/IEA 2012

The context
 Foundations of global energy system shifting
 Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries  Retreat from nuclear in some others  Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency

 All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy
 Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices

5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)
 Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist
 Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA
 CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain  Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity
© OECD/IEA 2012

Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
6 030 Mtoe 100% 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe Rest of non-OECD Non-OECD Middle East India China

80%
60% 40% 20%

OECD

1975

2010

2035

Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
© OECD/IEA 2012

A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil and gas production mboe/d 25 20 Unconventional gas 15 10 5

Conventional gas
Unconventional oil Conventional oil

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 2035

The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States
© OECD/IEA 2012

Iraq oil poised for a major expansion
Iraq oil production mb/d 9 8 7 6 5 North Centre South mb/d 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

Iraq oil exports
Other Asia

4
3 2 1 2012 2020 2035

2
1 2012 2020 2035

Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia
© OECD/IEA 2012

Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road
Middle East oil export by destination mb/d 7 6 2000 2011 2035

5
4 3 2 1

China
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