To What Extent Has British Relative Economic Decline Since the Late
INTRODUCTION
In answering the above question, I shall address myself first to examining manufacturing exports and the British position, followed by a word on the Imperial Preference which hindered British trade flows with the rest of the world. I shall go on to talk more generally about whether there has been a decline in the aggregate economy (essentially exploring the pessimistic implied in the title). Further, I shall argue that the British economy has performed well against some serious cultural and structural constraints and should not be subjected to unduly negative analysis.
I shall look finally, and briefly at the performance of the service sector with regard to its contribution to, and correlation with, the aggregate and industrial growth in output and productivity, before concluding that the service sector was the major contributing factor to the UK falling behind it counterparts. Despite this, the relatively small amount by which the economy fell behind is indicative of the over-exaggeration of the problem of British decline.
MANUFACTURING EXPORTS
Britain 's share of manufacturing in fact fell dramatically over the twentieth century as can be seen from the following table and graph:
Shares of world exports of manufacturing (%) UK USA Germany
1899 34.5 12.1 16.6
1913 31.8 13.7 19.9
1929 23.8 21.7 15.5
1950 24.6 26.6 7.0
1987 7.3 12.6 19.3
Source: Broadberry (1944, p.294)
The main European competitor since the Second World War has been Germany; US market share has also dropped off from its peak in the 1950s. Whether this drop is as a direct result of the fall in comparative aggregate labour productivity is the topic of some discussion. Whilst it seems that must surely have an impact, Broadberry raises three important factors which may apply instead. Those are firstly, that UK exports were inevitably, going to decline as other nations became industrialised and started to trade on the world market. Secondly, that
In answering the above question, I shall address myself first to examining manufacturing exports and the British position, followed by a word on the Imperial Preference which hindered British trade flows with the rest of the world. I shall go on to talk more generally about whether there has been a decline in the aggregate economy (essentially exploring the pessimistic implied in the title). Further, I shall argue that the British economy has performed well against some serious cultural and structural constraints and should not be subjected to unduly negative analysis.
I shall look finally, and briefly at the performance of the service sector with regard to its contribution to, and correlation with, the aggregate and industrial growth in output and productivity, before concluding that the service sector was the major contributing factor to the UK falling behind it counterparts. Despite this, the relatively small amount by which the economy fell behind is indicative of the over-exaggeration of the problem of British decline.
MANUFACTURING EXPORTS
Britain 's share of manufacturing in fact fell dramatically over the twentieth century as can be seen from the following table and graph:
Shares of world exports of manufacturing (%) UK USA Germany
1899 34.5 12.1 16.6
1913 31.8 13.7 19.9
1929 23.8 21.7 15.5
1950 24.6 26.6 7.0
1987 7.3 12.6 19.3
Source: Broadberry (1944, p.294)
The main European competitor since the Second World War has been Germany; US market share has also dropped off from its peak in the 1950s. Whether this drop is as a direct result of the fall in comparative aggregate labour productivity is the topic of some discussion. Whilst it seems that must surely have an impact, Broadberry raises three important factors which may apply instead. Those are firstly, that UK exports were inevitably, going to decline as other nations became industrialised and started to trade on the world market. Secondly, that
Bibliography: § Aldcroft, D. H. (ed.) The Development of British Industry and Foreign Competition, 1875-1914 (1968), London: Allen and Unwin § Broadberry, S, N, At Your Service: The Performance of British Market Services in International Perspective, 1870 - 1990 Chapter 9: Studies in Sectoral Performance, 1914-1950 (1999) Unpublished § Broadberry, S. N. The Long Run Growth and Productivity Performance of the United Kingdom Scottish Journal of Political Economy (1997) § Lee, C. 'The Service Industries ' in Floud, R. and McCloskey, D. (eds.) The Economic History of Britain Since 1700: Volume 2: 1860-1939 (1994) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press § Pollard, S. 'Entrepreneurship 1870-1914 ' in Floud, R. and McCloskey, D. (eds.) The Economic History of Britain Since 1700: Volume 2: 1860-1939 (1994) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press § Sandberg, L. Lancashire in Decline: A Study in Entrepreneurship, Technology and International Trade (1974) Columbus: Ohio State University Press