The Alaskan Gold Mine
Problem Statement:
I have been given a three month option on a possible gold mine in Alaska and after spending two and a half months I have been able to discover a gold mine. Now, my concern is to identify the best possible strategy to reach the claims office in 2 weeks considering the risks of losing the gold mine and life because of the unfavourable weather conditions.
Analysis of Issue and Areas of consideration:
Claiming the gold mine within two weeks is my priority. However, there are some life threatening risks because of the unpredictable weather conditions. Thus, I need to analyze the probabilities of various risks and choose the one which helps me reach the claims office within 2 weeks and poses minimum risk to my life. Main factors which I thus need to consider are:-
1. Time constraint to reach the claims office non conformance to which could probably result in auction of the gold mine which would be difficult for me to outbid.
2. Going over the mountains for reaching the claims office quickly is a dangerous route which could cost me my life in case of any storm. Hence, it would result in the loss of the gold mine.
3. My left hand is injured. Thus, if I choose a dangerous route, I run into the risk of getting injured again which would worsen my condition. Also, the injury makes me weak sometimes which will slow down my pace during return.
4. Mountain storm cannot be predicted immediately. Waiting for forecast would cost a 3 day delay.
5. I have spent a lot of time, money and effort to uncover this gold mine. If I am not able to claim the same, it would be an expensive deal with no returns.
Assumptions:
Some of the assumptions which I have taken to come up with alternatives are:
1. The probability of passing smoothly through valley is greater than 95% which will help me reach the claims office in two to three weeks.
2. The extent of danger on valley route is not life threatening.
3. The journey on the valley route is slow and tiring because of
I have been given a three month option on a possible gold mine in Alaska and after spending two and a half months I have been able to discover a gold mine. Now, my concern is to identify the best possible strategy to reach the claims office in 2 weeks considering the risks of losing the gold mine and life because of the unfavourable weather conditions.
Analysis of Issue and Areas of consideration:
Claiming the gold mine within two weeks is my priority. However, there are some life threatening risks because of the unpredictable weather conditions. Thus, I need to analyze the probabilities of various risks and choose the one which helps me reach the claims office within 2 weeks and poses minimum risk to my life. Main factors which I thus need to consider are:-
1. Time constraint to reach the claims office non conformance to which could probably result in auction of the gold mine which would be difficult for me to outbid.
2. Going over the mountains for reaching the claims office quickly is a dangerous route which could cost me my life in case of any storm. Hence, it would result in the loss of the gold mine.
3. My left hand is injured. Thus, if I choose a dangerous route, I run into the risk of getting injured again which would worsen my condition. Also, the injury makes me weak sometimes which will slow down my pace during return.
4. Mountain storm cannot be predicted immediately. Waiting for forecast would cost a 3 day delay.
5. I have spent a lot of time, money and effort to uncover this gold mine. If I am not able to claim the same, it would be an expensive deal with no returns.
Assumptions:
Some of the assumptions which I have taken to come up with alternatives are:
1. The probability of passing smoothly through valley is greater than 95% which will help me reach the claims office in two to three weeks.
2. The extent of danger on valley route is not life threatening.
3. The journey on the valley route is slow and tiring because of