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Terrorism and Tourism in Pakistan

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Terrorism and Tourism in Pakistan
Economic Modelling 33 (2013) 65–70

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Economic Modelling journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecmod

Terrorism and tourism: A conjunction and ramification in Pakistan
Syed Ali Raza ⁎, Syed Tehseen Jawaid 1
IQRA University, Karachi-75300, Pakistan

a r t i c l e

i n f o

a b s t r a c t
This study investigates the impact of terrorism activities on tourism in Pakistan by using the annual time series data from the period of 1980 to 2010. Johansen and Jeuuselius and ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between terrorism and tourism. Results indicate the significant negative impact of terrorism on tourism in the long run as well as in the short run. Results of rolling window estimation method indicate that terrorism having negative coefficients throughout the sample period. Results of dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) suggest that the results will remain the same in the future up to lead 2. Results of Granger causality test, Toda and Yamamoto Modified Wald causality test and variance decomposition test confirm the unidirectional causal relationship between terrorism and tourism, causality runs from terrorism to tourism. Hye and Khan (2012) confirm tourism led growth hypothesis for Pakistan. It is suggested that the government should play a significant role to reduce terrorism activities that should be decreased in the country to boost tourism activities that lead to increase in income from tourism in Pakistan. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Article history: Accepted 19 March 2013 Available online xxxx JEL classification: L83 C32 Keywords: Tourism Time series analysis Terrorism Cointegration

1. Introduction Many studies have been conducted on tourism activities. Some of them show the relationship between tourism activities with economic growth and found significant positive relationship between tourism and economic growth. 2On the other hand,


References: Alsarayreh, M.N., Jawabreh, O.A.A., Helalat, S.S., 2010. The influence of terrorism on the international tourism activities. European Journal of Social Sciences 13 (1). Balaguer, J., Cantavella-Jorda, M., 2002. Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied Economics 34 (7), 877–884. Brida, J.G., Barquet, A., Risso, W.A., 2010. Causality between economic growth and tourism expansion: empirical evidence from Trentino-Alto Adige. TOURISMOS: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism 5 (2), 87–98. Chen, R.J.C., Noriega, P., 2004. The impacts of terrorism: perceptions of faculty and students on safety and security in tourism. Journal of Tourism and Travel Marketing 15 (2–3), 81–97. Cook, R.L., McCleary, K.W., 1983. Redefining vacation distances in consumer minds. Journal of Travel Research 22 (2), 31–34. Cortes-Jemenez, I., Pulina, M., 2006. A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy Sustainable Development Series. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) (Working Paper No. 2006/118). D 'Amore, L.J., Anuza, T.E., 1986. International terrorism: implications and challenge for global tourism. Business Quarterly 20–29 (November).
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