Supply and Demand Projection of Wheat
SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTION OF WHEAT IN PUNJAB FOR THE YEAR 2010-2011
1-Dr.Hazoor Muhammad Sabir* 2- Safdar Husain Tahir**
ABSTRACT
Wheat is the staple food of people in Pakistan. Depending upon rapidly growing population, the wheat requirements vary from time to time that creates complications for policy makers. The main objective of the study was to forecast as accurately as possible, the population and wheat requirements in Punjab province for the year 2010-11. For this purpose a time series data regarding population, wheat production and wheat requirements were collected from the National statistics. An exponential smoothing model specific for forecasting was applied. Different weights ranging from 0.3-0.9 were given to the past data to get the precise estimates. Results revealed that a quantity of 7.55 million tons wheat will be surplus in Punjab as the total requirements would be 12.45 million tons for the population of 95.78 million projected for the year 2010-11.
Key words: Population, production, requirement, forecasting and Punjab (Pakistan)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Economist Ayub Agri. Research Institute. Faisalabad. (Corresponding author)
** Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Business Finance, MAJU. Islamabad.
1-INTRODUCTION
Pakistan is the 9th largest wheat producer, accounting for 3.04 % of the world 's wheat production from an area of 3.57 % of the world (FAO 2009) Wheat is the leading food grain of Pakistan and being staple diet of the people. It occupies a central position in formulation of agricultural policies. It contributes 14.4 percent to the value added in agriculture and 3.1 percent to GDP (Eco Survey 2009-10)
Planning is fundamentally a process of thinking ahead and anticipating difficulties through rational actions based on experience, prudence and imagination to conduct the course of development so as to realize the pet and professed goals.
1-Dr.Hazoor Muhammad Sabir* 2- Safdar Husain Tahir**
ABSTRACT
Wheat is the staple food of people in Pakistan. Depending upon rapidly growing population, the wheat requirements vary from time to time that creates complications for policy makers. The main objective of the study was to forecast as accurately as possible, the population and wheat requirements in Punjab province for the year 2010-11. For this purpose a time series data regarding population, wheat production and wheat requirements were collected from the National statistics. An exponential smoothing model specific for forecasting was applied. Different weights ranging from 0.3-0.9 were given to the past data to get the precise estimates. Results revealed that a quantity of 7.55 million tons wheat will be surplus in Punjab as the total requirements would be 12.45 million tons for the population of 95.78 million projected for the year 2010-11.
Key words: Population, production, requirement, forecasting and Punjab (Pakistan)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Economist Ayub Agri. Research Institute. Faisalabad. (Corresponding author)
** Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Business Finance, MAJU. Islamabad.
1-INTRODUCTION
Pakistan is the 9th largest wheat producer, accounting for 3.04 % of the world 's wheat production from an area of 3.57 % of the world (FAO 2009) Wheat is the leading food grain of Pakistan and being staple diet of the people. It occupies a central position in formulation of agricultural policies. It contributes 14.4 percent to the value added in agriculture and 3.1 percent to GDP (Eco Survey 2009-10)
Planning is fundamentally a process of thinking ahead and anticipating difficulties through rational actions based on experience, prudence and imagination to conduct the course of development so as to realize the pet and professed goals.
References: 1- Abdul Saboor, Farooq Tanwir and Samra Inayat (2003).Time Series Analysis of Production Potential of Wheat in Pakistan up to the Year 2010-11 International Journal Of Agriculture & Biology 1560–8530/2003/05–3–329–331. 3- Daniel , O.Brien., (2010.) U.S. Grain Supply Demand Projections for 2010 from the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum K.State Research and Extension USDA, USA. 7- Govt. of Pakistan, 2009-2010. Economic Survey, Finance Division, Economic Adviser’s Wing, Islamabad. 8- Govt. of Pakistan, 2008-2009. Agriculture statistics of Pakistan statistical Division, Economic Adviser’s Wing, Islamabad. 9- Govt. of Punjab, 2009. Punjab development statistics Bureau of statistics, Lahore. 11- Khalid, Al-Hamoudi (1985)., Analysis of the demand and supply function of Wheat in Saudi Arabia projection of supply and consumption through 1985, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural Economics. USA. 12- Khubulava, N.N., (1991). An econometric model for forecasting agricultural production. Central Economic Research Institute of PSFSR, Moscow, USSR. 13- PARC, 1986. Wheat research and development in Pakistan, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council/CIMMYT Programme, Islamabad. 15- Scott D. Rozelle and Jikun Huang., (1998) Wheat in China, Supply, Demand, and Trade in the Twenty-First Century. University of California, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Beijing, China. Special Report No. 3.