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Methods of Fuure and Scenario Analysis

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Methods of Fuure and Scenario Analysis
Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis
Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria

Hannah Kosow
Robert Gaßner

Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis

German Development Institute (DIE)

The German Development Institute is a multidisciplinary research, consultancy, and training institute for Germany’s bilateral development cooperation as well as for multilateral development cooperation. On the basis of independent research, it acts as consultant to public institutions in Germany and abroad on current issues of cooperation between developed and developing countries. In a 9-month training course, the German Development
Institute prepares German and European university graduates for careers in the field of development policy.

Hannah Kosow is a researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies and
Technology Assessment (IZT), Berlin. Hannah studied social and political sciences at the University of Stuttgart and at the Institut d’Etudes Politiques, Bordeaux with a main focus on technological and environmental sociology, political theory and public and political communication. Since
2006, she has worked at IZT in the areas of technology assessment, user acceptance, risk assessment, and participatory methods, as well as futures analysis and scenario analysis. Hannah’s research focuses on new technologies in health care and on methodological and empirical questions related to participatory and future oriented approaches.
E-Mail: h.kosow@izt.de

Robert Gaßner, a psychologist by training, is a senior researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT), Berlin. Since
1985, Dr. Gaßner has worked in the field of interdisciplinary technology assessment and technology design. In recent years, his research has included work on sustainable development and general and methodological questions of futures research, particularly using scenario planning and other participative approaches. Dr. Gaßner also serves as a facilitator



Bibliography: 64/2007, 722–731 Barré, Rémi (2004): Participative and Coherent Scenario building: An Input/Output Bernarie, Michel (1988): Delphi- and Delphi-like-Approaches with Special Regard to Environmental Standard Setting, in: Technological Forecasting and Social Blasche, Ute G. (2006): Die Szenariotechnik als Modell für komplexe Probleme: Mit Unsicherheiten leben lernen, in: Falko E long range business planning, in: Futures 37, 795–812 Braun, Anette / Christoph Glauner / Axel Zweck (2005): Einführung in die Praxis der “Regionalen Vorausschau“: Hintergründe und Methoden, Düsseldorf, Zukünftige Technologien Consulting (ZTC Working Paper 2/2005) Burmeister, Klaus / Andreas Neef / Bert Beyers (2004): Corporate Foresight: Unternehmen gestalten Zukunft, Hamburg: Murmann Cuhls, Kerstin (2003): From Forecasting to Foresight Processes – New Participative Foresight Activities in Germany, in: Journal of Forecasting 22 (23), 93– 111 Da Costa, Olivier et al. (2003): Science and Technology Roadmapping: From Industry to Public Policy, Brussels: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS Report 73) Debiel, Tobias / Dirk Messner / Franz Nuscheler (2006): Globale Trends 2007: Dießl, Kathrina (2006): Der Corporate-Foresight-Prozess, Saarbrücken: VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Erdmann, Lorenz et al Eurofound (European Foundation for the improvement of Living and Working Conditions) (2003): Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight; online: http://www.eurofound.eu.int. Forrester, Jay W. (1971): World Dynamics, Cambridge, Mass.: Wright-Allen Press Gabriel, Johannes et al Gaßner, Robert (1992): Plädoyer für mehr Science Fiction in der Zukunftsforschung, in: Klaus Burmeister / Karlheinz Steinmüller (ed.), Streifzüge ins Übermorgen, Weinheim, Basel: Beltz Verlag, 223–232 Gaßner, Robert / Karlheinz Steinmüller (2006): Narrative normative Szenarien in der Praxis, in: Falko E Zukunft, Bern: Haupt Verlag, 133–144 Gausemeier, Jürgen / Alexander Fink / Oliver Schlake (1996): Szenario-Management: Planen und Führen mit Szenarien, 2 Hauser Geschka, Horst / Richard Hammer (1984): Die Szenario-Technik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung, in: Dietger Hahn / Bernard Taylor (ed.), Strategische Unternehmensplanung, 3 Godet, Michel (1993): From Anticipation to Action: A Handbook of Strategic Prospective, Paris: United Nations Educational Gordon, Theodore Jay (1994a): Trend Impact Analysis, in: Jerome C. Glenn / Theodore J AC/UNU Millennium Project – (1994b): Cross Impact Analysis, in: Jerome C Futures Research Methodology: Version 2.0,AC/UNU Millennium Project Götze, Uwe (1993): Szenario-Technik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung, – (2006): Cross-Impact Analyse zur Bildung und Auswertung von Szenarien, in: Falko E European and global Scenario studies and Models, Copenhagen: European Environment Agency (Environmental issues series 17) Größler, Andreas (2006): Szenarioanalysen mit System-Dynamics-Modellen, in: Grunwald, Armin (2002): Technikfolgenabschätzung: Eine Einführung, Berlin: Edition Sigma – (2007): Umstrittene Zukünfte und rationale Abwägung: Prospektives Folgewissen Heijden, Kees van der (1996): Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Chichester: John Wiley & Sons

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