India China - Demographic Dividend
India China - demographic dividend.txt Eye On: Demographics: India and China: Twin Stories of Progress? Posted by Adrienne Villani on September 24, 2010 This article was originally published in our new, redesigned fortnightly e-magazine. Sign up today! Three decades from now, China and India will have vastly divergent demographics. Demography underpins every segment of what is termed development – it drives the choices people make in their everyday lives, whether a country’s resources can sustain its growing population, whether a larger population will lead to greater conflict or a readjustment in rural-urban migration, or even whether an aging population will add to the number of dependents. Only in accounting for and understanding the specificities of the population can the complex web of political, economic, and social issues be addressed, and ultimately, projected. So, what outcomes will these divergent demographics create? Today, with 1.4 billion and 1.2 billion people respectively, China and India account for 37% of the world population. In thirty years, they are expected to account for roughly the same percentage of the world population. The picture is not this simple, though. Fundamental changes lurk behind these numbers. By 2030, according to UN projections, India and China will be roughly on par in terms of overall population, with approximately 1.4 to 1.5 billion people each (India should be marginally ahead, barring tremendous catastrophe). But the years 2025 to 2030 are absolutely critical. During this five year period, China’s rate of population growth will decrease to zero. What does this mean? China will no longer make net additions to its population. In layman’s terms, the number of births and the numbers of deaths will be roughly equivalent, and in a short period of time, the number of deaths will overtake the number of births. This will push China into a negative rate of population growth post-2030. Subsequently, China will experience the aging