India China Comparison

INDIA CHINA COMPARISON

❖ Infrastructure

❖ National Inequality and regional disparity

Table of Contents

|Topic |Compiled by |Roll No |
| | | |
|Infrastructure |Himir .H. Shah |140 |
|National Inequality and regional disparity |
|Poverty Level |Suken Shah |149 |
|Literacy Rates |Vikas Parikh |131 |
|Per Capita Income |Vidhi Shah |150 |
|Private Investment |Rafi Talati |147 |
|Population Policy |Roma Shah |157 |
|Graphical Comparisons |
| | | |

INDIA CHINA INFRASTRUCTURE

Overview :

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India Infrastructure study :

The six core and infrastructure industries, viz., electricity, crude oil, petroleum refinery products, coal, steel and cement, having a weight of 26.7 per cent in overall Index of Industrial Production (IIP) achieved 6.8 per cent during 2000 :01 and has increased ever since. Several fiscal incentives were announced by the government for boosting investment in infrastructure projects. Ten :year tax holiday offered to projects in core sectors like roads, highways, waterways, water supply, sanitation and solid waste management systems can now be availed of during the initial 20 years. Projects in airports, ports, inland ports, industrial parks and generation and distribution of power can now avail of 10 :year tax holidays during the initial 15 years. The facility of five :year tax holiday available to the telecommunication sector till 31 March, 2000 was reintroduced for units commencing their operations on or before 31 March, 2003. The concessions were extended to internet service providers and broadband networks. Tax incentives were made available to investors providing long term finance to enterprises engaged in infrastructure. The Electricity Bill 2001 and the Communication Convergence Bill 2001 were introduced in Parliament.

Power :

The generation of power has increased impressively in recent years. In 1990 :91, India generated 6.6 billion kilowatt hour of electricity; in 1995 :96 the figure was 380.1 billion kilowatt hour. The installed capacity, which was 1400 MW at Independence in 1947, has crossed 83,288 MW. The policy of inviting private sector has been well received; about 140 offers that can generate over 60,000 MW of power have came in.

Generation Efficiency : Energy efficiency of a thermal power unit (plant) is expressed as the heat rate, measured as grams of standard coal equivalent (gsce) consumed per KWh electricity generated. The total system efficiency of generation depends on the heat rates of individual plants and the number of hours each is dispatched. This heat rate is dictated by technical factors such as size, combustion technology and vintage, as well as operational factors. Actual heat rates are often higher than the design heat rate due to factors such as management practices, maintenance and fuel quality.

Generation Efficiency in India : Indian states have seen a shift of the distribution of heat rates toward higher thermal efficiency from 1990 as newer plants have lower heat rates than the older ones. Recent technologies based on gas turbines have sharply cut the average heat rate. Within this class of plants, there have been few shifts in heat rate over time since essentially all of these plants are of new and homogenous technology. However, in some of the years, the heat rate has risen due to low capacity utilization of these plants caused by scarcity of natural gas supplies. Generators have deployed dual fired plants (naphtha and natural gas) to overcome this problem, but in recent years even dual plants have not been dispatched due to the steep rise in naphtha prices. The plants built by the central government are the most efficient in their respective fuel class. The private plants were less efficient than those built by the state because the private units were typically smaller and burned less efficient lignite. However, the gas plants built by cooperatives and private investors have approximately the same efficiency as those built by the centre. What matters most is the selection of gas as fuel in the first place. Technology and vintage of the plants has been observed to be another important factor influencing the actual heat rates. Older coal plants have considerably higher design heat rates due to lower steam temperatures and pressures and actual heat rates have gone up due to poor maintenance. Neither state has adopted clear policies or practices on retirement of old plants. There are examples of plants that operate far beyond their originally expected life. Finally, the application of significant environment standards in electricity generation only started in the early nineties and even these new norms are not strictly enforced.

Coal is the primary source for power generation in India. The country has huge reserves of coal, approximately 197 billion tonnes. A sufficient amount of lignite (brown coal used in thermal power stations) is also available.

India produced about 270 million tonnes of coal in 1995 :96. The government now welcomes private investment in the coal sector, allowing companies to operate captive mines.

Petroleum and Natural Gas : The recent exploration and production activities in the country have led to a dramatic increase in the output of oil. The country currently produces 35 million tonnes of crude oil, two :thirds of which is from offshore areas, and imports another 27 million tonnes. Refinery production in terms of crude throughput of the existing refineries is about 54 million tonnes.

Natural gas production has also increased substantially in recent years, with the country producing over 22,000 million cubic metres. Natural gas is rapidly becoming an important source of energy and feedstock for major industries. Its predicted that the production was likely to reach 30 billion cubic metres.

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Transportation :

India’s transport sector is large and diverse; it caters to the needs of 1.1 billion people. The sector contributes approx 4.4 percent to the nation’s GDP, with road transportation contributing the lion’s share. Good physical connectivity in the urban and rural areas is essential for economic growth. Since the early 1990s, India's growing economy has witnessed a rise in demand for transport infrastructure and services by around 10 percent a year. However, the sector has not been able to keep pace with rising demand and is proving to be a drag on the economy. Major improvements in the sector are therefore required to support the country's continued economic growth and to reduce poverty.
Railways : With a total route length of 63,000 km and a fleet of 7,000 passenger and 4,000 goods trains, the Indian Railways is the second largest network in the world. It carries more than 4,000 million passengers per year and transports over 382 million tonnes of freight every year. It is well equipped to meet its demands for locomotives, coaches and other components. Lately, the Railways have launched a massive gauge :conversion drive as about a third of the track is metre or narrow gauge. With improvement in tracks, plans are afoot to introduce faster trains. Very soon, certain prestigious long :distance trains will be running at 160 km per hour. The Railways have also started a scheme to privatise several services that will include maintenance of railway stations, meals, drinking water and cleaning of trains.
Indian Railways is the largest railway in Asia and the fourth most heavily used system in the world. It carries some 14 million passengers a day and is one of the world’s largest employers. Till recently, the railways played a leading role in carrying passengers and cargo across India’s vast territory. However, with tariff policies that overcharge freight to subsidize passenger travel, the movement of freight is increasingly shifting from railways to roads.

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Roads : Roads are the dominant mode of transportation in India today. They carry almost 90 percent of the country’s passenger traffic and 65 percent of its freight. The density of India’s highway network : : at 0.66 km of highway per square kilometre of land – is similar to that of the United States (0.65). However, most highways in India are narrow and congested with poor surface quality, and 40 percent of India’s villages do not have access to all :weather roads. The roadways have grown rapidly in independent India. Ranging from the cross :country link of the national highways to the roads in the deepest interiors, the country has a road network of 3.3 million km. India also manufactures most of its motorised vehicles : cars, jeeps, trucks, vans, buses and a wide range of two :wheelers of various capacities. While Indian scooters have established a good foreign market, the car industry is also looking up with several foreign companies setting up plants in India.
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Ports : India has 12 major and 185 minor and intermediate ports along its vast coastline. These ports serve the country’s growing foreign trade in petroleum products, iron ore, and coal, as well as the increasing movement of containers. Inland water transportation remains largely undeveloped despite India's 14,000 kilometres of navigable rivers and canals. The natural advantage of a vast coastline requires India to use sea transport for the bulk of cargo transport. Following the policy of liberalisation, the Indian shipping industry, major ports, as also national highways and water transport have been thrown open to the private sector.

Shipping activity is buoyant and the number of ships registered under the Indian flag has reached 471. The average age of the shipping fleet in India is 13 years, compared to 17 years of the international shipping fleet. India is also among the few countries that offer fair and free competition to all shipping companies for obtaining cargo. There is no cargo reservation policy in India.
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Aviation : India has more than 88 airports, including 11 international airports. The dramatic increase in air traffic for both passengers and cargo in recent years has placed a heavy strain on the country's four major airports.
Transport infrastructure in India is better developed in the southern and south western parts of the country
India has an aviation infrastructure which caters to every aspect of this industry. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is India's gigantic aeronautical organisation and one of the major aerospace complexes in the world.

India plans to build and expand its network to over 140 airports in the far :flung and remote areas of the country. Pawan Hans, a helicopter service, provides services in difficult terrains.

The Government has adopted a liberal civil aviation policy with a view to improving domestic services. Many private airlines are already operating in the country.
Challenges
• India’s roads are congested and of poor quality • Rural areas have poor access. • The railways are facing severe capacity constraints • Urban centres are severely congested • Ports are congested and inefficient • Airport infrastructure is strained
|INDIA : Transport Sector Key Statistics |
| |Units |As of 2004 |
|Length of Roads |Km. |3,315,231 |
|Main Roads |Km. |665,231 |
|Paved Roads |% |50 |
|Access to All :Season :Roads |% |60 |
|Road Density |km/1,000 sq. km. |768 |
|Rail Track Length |Km. |63,122 |
|No. of Ports | |197 |
|Turnaround time |Days |3 |
|Airports | |60 |
|International | |11 |

Pipelines : Oil and natural gas pipelines form an important transportation network in the country. The country completed recently, on schedule, one of its most ambitious projects, the 1,700 km Hazira :Bijaipur :Jagdishpur pipeline. Costing nearly Rs. 17 billion, the pipeline transports liquid gas from the South Bassein offshore field off Mumbai to Jagdishpur and Aonla, deep in the mainland in Uttar Pradesh. Besides, India has nearly 7,000 km of pipeline mainly for the transportation of crude oil and its products.

Telecommunications :
One of the fastest growing sectors in the country, telecommunications has been zooming up the growth curve at a feverish pace in the past few years. The year 2007 saw India achieve the distinction of having the world's lowest call rates, the fastest growth in the number of subscribers (15.31 million in 4 months), the fastest sale of a million mobile phones (1 week), the world's cheapest mobile handset (US$ 17.2) and the world's most affordable colour phone (US$ 27.42).
Trends
• Indian telecommunication firms added 5.19 million new subscribers in April 2007, taking the total user base above 212.02 million. • Wireless service providers continued to dominate user growth by adding 5.15 million subscribers in April, while 40,000 new fixed :line users signed up. • At 500 minutes a month, India has the highest monthly 'minutes of usage' (MOU) per subscriber in the Asia :Pacific region. • India is emerging as a forerunner in using the cell phone as a tool to access the Internet, with one in every 11 people logging on to the web across the world through mobiles turning out to be an Indian. • The country's telecom sector will see investments up to US$ 25 billion over the next five years, projects global consultancy firm Ernst & Young. • India is expected to register handset production of over 51 million units in 2007 to record the highest growth in the Asia :Pacific region, according to technology research firm Gartner. • India produced nearly 31 million mobile phones in 2006 worth about US$ 5 billion. The production of handsets is set to increase by 68 per cent in units and 65 per cent in value terms in 2007. By 2011, production volumes are expected to reach nearly 95 million units at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25 per cent. • The retail market for mobile phones : : handsets, accessories and airtime : : is over US$ 15.6 billion and growing at the rate of 15 :20 per cent. • Massive infrastructure needs in India might provide a potential private equity role. A recent study by telecom regulator Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has estimated that the country will need about 350,000 telecom towers by 2010, as against 125,000 in 2007. • With a CAGR of 46 per cent, India has emerged as the fastest growing market in the data centre :structured cabling market in the Asia Pacific region, according to Access Markets International (AMI) Partners, a US :based consultancy agency. The data centre structured cabling market is expected to grow from US$ 19 million in 2005 to US$ 125 million in 2010. The overall structure cabling market is expected to grow from US$ 127 million in 2005 to US$ 345 million by 2010 at a CAGR of 22 per cent. . • In May 2007, Indian GSM mobile phone service providers signed up 5.1 million customers, taking total users to 130.6 million, the Cellular Operators' Association of India said. • The combined revenue of all operators from their mobile businesses would more than double to US$ 33.1 billion by 2010, from about US$ 12.8 billion in 2006. • The total revenue of all telecom operators is also set to nearly double to US$ 43.6 billion in four years, from US$ 22.5 billion in 2006. The revenue share of mobile business would rise to 76 per cent in the same period, from 57 per cent currently. India, which is adding over six million mobile subscribers every month, has surpassed Russia to become the third largest mobile market in the world after China and the US. The total mobile subscriber base in the country is likely to reach 425 million by March 2010 with Bharti Airtel (GSM) and Reliance (CDMA and GSM) emerging as the top two mobile operators in terms of number of subscribers.

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China Infrastructure study :

China’s GDP per capita is now 2.2 times higher than India’s (in USD PPP terms). Until the early 1990s, GDP per capita in China and India was at comparable levels, but China adopted wide ranging economic reform one decade earlier than India.

The Chinese economy is much more integrated with the world economy through international trade and investment, which helps to explain its stronger rate of GDP growth during most of the past 3 decades. For its economic development, China has relied on industry and India on services. China’s ratios of domestic savings and investment to GDP are roughly double those of India’s.

China’s early steps to liberalise its economy and invest heavily to modernise its physical infrastructure gave it a substantial edge over India in terms of income per capita levels. They also made China a more attractive destination to foreign investors. However, although India started economic reforms only a decade later than China, it is far more advanced in its institutional infrastructure and corporate governance. This is reflected in contrasting outcomes foreign direct investment is considerably lower than in China, but returns on investment are better on average. The key to unlock India’s potential to rival China as an FDI destination is a decisive effort by the Indian authorities to push ahead with reforms.

Power :

China is the second largest producer of electricity in the world and its power demand growth is also among the world’s highest. With rapid economic growth continuing to drive energy demand, China faces supply reliability concerns across the energy sector. These concerns are particularly acute for power and oil.

Generation Efficiency in China : The two factors driving the change in heat rates after 1990 are the increasing size of new generation units and explicit government policies to curtail generation in old inefficient plants when power is not in short supply. The central government promoted construction of large scale units in the 1980s in the context of the country, allowing imports of western technology as well as active efforts to improve domestic equipment manufacturing capability. The government adopted the technological standard of 300 MW unit capacities and restricted construction of smaller power plants. Through building of these new larger plants a power shortage was gradually alleviated during in the 1990s. As the power supply turned into surplus in 1997, the central government also ordered the shutdown of many small, inefficient thermal power generators that had been built as stopgap measures. Although efficient (lower heat rate) technology became relatively more important, a noticeable amount of electricity was still generated from low efficiency power plants where the demand for power has been especially high and includes the small inefficient generators that are being used to fill the gap between soaring demand and supply.

Transportation :
Since the early 1990s, China's economy has moved from a centrally planned environment to one that is more commercialized and competitive; the degree of openness has increased; patterns of transport demand have changed; passenger and freight traffic have grown rapidly, putting heavy demands on infrastructure, with a big role in the private sector.
In the past, China underinvested in roads, but since the mid 1990s, with a rapid increase in the rate of road construction, it has become one of the fastest countries in building its road network. By the end of 2004 the total road network extended roughly 1,870,661 km, with 34,288 km of expressways and about 600,584 km of Class I through III highways. With its complementary railway and waterway networks, China has developed one of the most diverse transportation networks in the world.
Roads and Highways : China has, in the past, underinvested in roads; its road network still ranks among the sparsest in the world relative to geographic area and population. China’s road network in 2002 extended roughly 1.76 million km, with some 25,130 km of expressways and about 27,468 km of other high grade highways in operation.
In the late 1990s, governments at all levels embarked on major highway investment programs. At the core was the National Trunk Highway System, which consists of building expressways to link all the major cities with each other, and especially ports. This system is the backbone, and most important element of, the national transportation network.
The National Trunk Highway System was originally to be a 35,000 km network composed of 12 major highways. There are five north : south corridors : Beijing : Fuzhou, Beijing : Zhuhai, Chongqing :Zhanjiang, Erlianhaote : Hekou, and Tongjiang : Sanya; and seven east : west corridors : Dandong :Lhasa, Hengyang :Kunming, Lianyungang : Huoerguosi, Qingdao :Yinchuan, Shanghai : Chengdu, Shanghai : Ruili, and Suifenhe : Manzhouli. With an estimated cost of US$150 billion, the National Trunk Highway System will connect all provincial capitals and cities with populations exceeding 500,000 inhabitants (100 major cities). By the end of 2004, roughly 34,288 km, or 97 percent of the total length, was completed.
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|China Transport Infrastructure (1.7mb pdf) |

In December 2004, the Chinese government approved an expanded National Trunk Highway System, or the “7918 Highway Network.” The plan to build 7 capital radials, 9 north :s outh major highways and 18 east :west corridors, totalling some 85,000 km of high : grade expressways, is expected to be completed in 2020.
The “7918 Highway Network” was designed to reach more than 1 billion people in China by connecting all provincial capitals and large urban centres of more than 500,000 inhabitants with cities of more than 200,000 inhabitants. The network location intends to allow people in eastern areas to access an expressway within half an hour, the central provinces within an hour, and the western areas within two hours. In addition, it will improve communications between economically developed areas, such as the Yangtze and Pearl River Deltas in the east and the mid west and northeast areas. It will also enhance the connections with the west, and will promote the economic growth of central and south eastern provinces, including Jiangxi.
Railways : By the end of 2000, China’s rail system reached 68,000 km. The nation constructed 5,600 km of new rail during the Ninth Five :Year Plan (1996 :2000), representing an 8 percent increase over the five :year period. During this time, US$29 billion was invested in railway infrastructure construction : : 28 percent more than during the Eighth Five :Year Plan (1991 : 95), which itself had set records for railway investment.
The nation’s Tenth Five :Year Plan (2001 :05) expanded the size of the rail network, speeding up railway construction in western China and adding capacity in the main corridors of the eastern network : :notably to link Beijing and Shanghai. By 2005, the length of the national railway had reached 75,000 km; increasing rail in western regions by more than 2,000 km.
The Chinese government has adopted strategic goals for the national railway system, to make it more responsive to market needs. The railway is spinning off non transport subsidiaries as independent companies, and in certain regions has initiated pilot operations where passenger services are set up as profit centres separate from freight.
Ports and Shipping : Maritime port infrastructure tends to be inefficient (clearance times vary from three days to a month, mostly caused by documentation, customs and tax procedures), though it is catching up under a major program of investment in berths, handling equipments and storage and a streamlining of procedures. Large enterprises, including COSCO Sinotrans and China Shipping, dominate this sector.
Many, including these two, are also among China’s largest providers of domestic transport services, having established agreements with domestic operators – road transport enterprises, the railways and inland waterway companies in the Yangtze and Pearl River deltas – to offer door :to :door services. APL, Maersk :Sealand and P&O have done the same in developing their own intermodal logistics networks linked with warehousing and distribution services.
Air Transport : Although central responsibility for airport development remains with the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China, China’s provinces are increasingly involved in detailed planning, construction, operation, and financing.
The Ninth Five :Year Plan aviation policy emphasized safety and regular quality service. To achieve this, substantial additions to capacity are being built at international airports in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, as well as in many provincial capital airports, and improvements in facilities for airport management, flight control, fuel supply and maintenance are under way. Both Beijing and Hong Kong have experienced high growth rates, despite the opening of competing airports in Macau, Zhuhai, and Guangzhou, and massive investment in upgrading freight facilities at Shanghai. POVERTY :

➢ Poverty means far more than simply not having enough money for minimal survival needs. It means the “denial of opportunities and choices most basic to human development : to lead a long, healthy, creative life and to enjoy a decent standard of living, freedom, dignity, self :esteem and respect from others.” (UNDP, 1997).

➢ The World Bank's "Voices of the Poor," based on research with over 20,000 poor people in 23 countries, identifies a range of factors which poor people identify as part of poverty. These include • precarious livelihoods • excluded locations • physical limitations • gender relationships • problems in social relationships • lack of security • abuse by those in power • disempowering institutions • limited capabilities, and • weak community organizations ➢ When measured, poverty is the absolute or relative poverty. Absolute poverty refers to a set standard which is consistent over time and between countries. An example of an absolute measurement would be the percentage of the population eating less food than is required to sustain the human body (approximately 2000 :2500 calories per day for an average male).

➢ The World Bank defines extreme poverty as living on less than US$ (PPP) 1 per day, and moderate poverty as less than $2 a day. It has been estimated that in 2001, 1.1 billion people had consumption levels below $1 a day and 2.7 billion lived on less than $2 a day.
Causes of Poverty : ➢ Natural factors like climate or environment. ➢ Unemployment ➢ Human factors like war or crime ➢ Resource curse ➢ Diseases ➢ Government factors ➢ Infrastructure ➢ Education ➢ Demographic transition ➢ History like colonialism, etc ➢ Trade practices, etc

POVERTY IN INDIA :
The proportion of India's population below the poverty line has fluctuated widely in the past, but the overall trend has been downward. However, there have been roughly three periods of trends in income poverty.
1950 to mid :1970s : Income poverty reduction shows no discernible trend. In 1951, 47% of India's rural population was below the poverty line. The proportion went up to 64% in 1954 :55; it came down to 45% in 1960 :61 but in 1977 :78, it went up again to 51%.
Mid :1970s to 1990 : Income poverty declined significantly between the mid :1970s and the end of the 1980s. The decline was more pronounced between 1977 :78 and 1986 :87, with rural income poverty declining from 51% to 39%. It went down further to 34% by 1989 :90. Urban income poverty went down from 41% in 1977 :78 to 34% in 1986 :87, and further to 33% in 1989 :90.
After 1991 : This post :economic reform period evidenced both setbacks and progress. Rural income poverty increased from 34% in 1989 :90 to 43% in 1992 and then fell to 37% in 1993 :94. Urban income poverty went up from 33.4% in 1989 :90 to 33.7% in 1992 and declined to 32% in 1993 :94 Also,NSS data for 1994 :95 to 1998 show little or no poverty reduction, so that the evidence till 1999 :2000 was that poverty, particularly rural poverty, had increased post :reform. However, the official estimate of poverty for 1999 :2000 was 26.1%, a dramatic decline that led to much debate and analysis. This was because for this year the NSS had adopted a new survey methodology that led to both higher estimated mean consumption and also an estimated distribution that was more equal than in past NSS surveys. The latest NSS survey for 2004 :05 is fully comparable to the surveys before 1999 :2000 and shows poverty at 48.3% in rural areas, 25.7% in urban areas and 27.5% for the country as a whole. Thus, poverty has declined after 1998, although it is still being debated whether there was any significant poverty reduction between 1989 :90 and 1999 :00. The latest NSS survey was so designed as to also give estimates roughly, but not fully, comparable to the 1999 :2000 survey. These suggest that most of the decline in rural poverty over the period during 1993 :94 to 2004 :05 actually occurred after 1999 :2000.
In summary, the official poverty rates recorded by NSS are :

|Year |Round |Poverty Rate (%) |Poverty Reduction per year(%) |
|1977 :78 |32 |51.3 | |
|1983 |38 |44.5 |1.3 |
|1987 :88 |43 |38.9 |1.2 |
|1993 :94 |50 |36.0 |0.5 |
|1999 :2000 |55 |(26.09) |not comparable |
|2004 :2005 |61 |27.5 |0.8 |

The recent figures state that the total population under the poverty line is 19.3% of which 21.1% is in rural INDIA compared to 15.1% in urban INDIA.

Poverty Alleviation Measures In India : ➢ Food for work ➢ National rural employment programme (1989) ➢ Rural Landless Employment Guarantee Programme (1983) ➢ Jawahar Rozgar Yojana ➢ Jawahar Employment Plan ➢ Minimum wage employment programme ➢ Shahari Rozgar Yojana ➢ Swarnjayanti Gram Swarozgar Yojana (1999) ➢ Setting up of NABARD, etc

Eradication of poverty in India can only be a long :term goal. Poverty alleviation is expected to make better progress in the next 50 years than in the past, as a trickle :down effect of the growing middle class. Increasing stress on education, reservation of seats in government jobs and the increasing empowerment of women and the economically weaker sections of society, are also expected to contribute to the alleviation of poverty. It is incorrect to say that all poverty reduction programmes have failed. The growth of the middle class (which was virtually non :existent when India became a free nation in August 1947) indicates that economic prosperity has indeed been very impressive in India, but the distribution of wealth is not at all even.
India currently adds 40 million people to its middle class every year. Analysts such as the founder of "Forecasting International", Marvin J. Cetron writes that an estimated 300 million Indians now belong to the middle class; one :third of them have emerged from poverty in the last ten years. At the current rate of growth, a majority of Indians will be middle :class by 2025. Literacy rates have risen from 52 percent to 65 percent during the initial decade of liberalization (1991 :2001).

POVERTY IN CHINA :
With the rapid rate of growth there has been a rapid fall in poverty : the proportion of the population surviving on income less than one dollar a day declined, according to a recent World Bank study, from 42.5 per cent in 1990 to about 25 per cent ten years later. According to China’s own lower national poverty line, the proportion of the rural population in extreme income poverty dropped from about one third in 1978, when reforms began, to three per cent at the end of 2000, which was close to the country’s target of eradication. In 2002, official estimates of urban poverty, which had previously been ignored, showed that four per cent of the urban population were affected

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Poverty Incidence in Rural China, 1978 :2000

|Year |National Statistical Bureau |World Bank |World Bank |
| | |(Earlier Study) |(Chen and Wang) |
|1978 |31 | | |
|1984 |15 | | |
|1985 |15 | | |
|1986 |16 | | |
|1987 |14 | | |
|1988 |11 | | |
|1989 |12 | | |
|1990 |9 |31.3 |42.5 |
|1991 |10 |31.7 | |
|1992 |9.4 |30.1 |40.6 |
|1993 |8.8 |29.1 |40.6 |
|1994 |8.2 |25.9 |34.6 |
|1995 |7.6 |21.8 |30.8 |
|1996 |6.7 |15.0 |24.1 |
|1997 |5.8 |13.5 |24.0 |
|1998 |4.6 |11.5 |24.1 |
|1999 |3.4 | |24.9 |
|2000 |3.2 | | |

Source : Riskin 2003, (based on S. Chen and Y. Wang, “China’s Growth and Poverty Reduction : Recent Trends between 1990 and 1999,” World Bank 2001.

The overall fall in poverty is accounted for mostly by two periods : the first five years of the economic reforms and the middle three years of the 1990s. For extended periods of time when growth continued to be rapid, its character was biased against poor households.

Around 48 million Chinese live below China's domestic poverty line, accounting for 3.7 % of the total population. Based on international standards, 135 million Chinese live below the general poverty line, or 10% of the population.

The numbers come from the "Report of the Development of an Overall Well :off Society (2006)," China's first blue book to be published on building an overall well off society, Beijing Evening News reports.

The report reveals there are 26 million needy people in China's countryside. Another 22 million living in cities subsist below minimum subsistence levels, or the poverty line. These 48 million people account for 3.7% of the total population in China.

According to international standards, however, the needy refer to those whose personal daily expenses average below $1.

The World Bank estimates about 135 million, or 10%, of Chinese live below the international poverty line. These people are the key group China should show concern for in building an overall well :off society.

Table 4 : Poverty and Inequality

|Countries |Share of Population that|Share of Population that|Share of Population that|
| |is Poor, By National |is Poor, By National |is Poor, US$ 1 a day |
| |Poverty Line, (Earliest |Poverty Line, |International Poverty |
| |Year) |(Latest Year) |Line (year in |
| | | |parentheses) |
|China |6.0(1996) |4.6(1998) |16.1(2000) |

Source : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2003.

Over the years it is to be seen that the total population below the poverty line has decreased.
THE number of people living in poverty has fallen below 1 billion for the first time since measurements began, and the one :third decline since 1981 is almost entirely due to a rising China.

Poverty Alleviation Measures In China : (in the mid 80’s caught government’s attention) ➢ Dynamic household farming system ➢ Employment generation programmes ➢ Township and Village Enterprises ➢ Women’s federation ➢ The China Household Income Project ➢ National Programme of Action(improving education and reducing mortality and malnutrition) – funded by UNFPA ➢ Erosion control strategy in land rehabilitation project ➢ Programme Green Poverty Alleviation ➢ Opening up of the economy ➢ Target poor villages for poverty alleviation, and instituted its responsibility system

LITERACY RATES

FACTS

CHINA

Definition of a Literate Person : One who can recognize more than 1500 Chinese characters (for a farmer) and 2000 characters (for an office worker or urban resident)

Literacy Rate : 90.9%

Illiterate Population : 87.0 million

(2000 :2004 figures estimated by UNESCO Institute for Statistics in September 2006)

|National Literacy Goals |
|YEAR |
|2010 |
|2015 |
| |
|Total adult literacy rate (%) |
|97 |
|99 |
| |
|Female adult literacy rate (%) |
|95 |
|97 |
| |
|Male adult literacy rate (%) |
|99 |
|99 |
| |

|Pupil / teacher ratio (primary) |19 |
|Public expenditure on education : |
| as % of GDP |1.9 |
| as % of total government expenditure |13 |

Current Literacy / Non :formal Education Objectives /Strategies

• To strengthen the leadership and guidance provided by governments at all levels to literacy and post :literacy education. The Chinese government promulgated the "Decision of the State Council on the Reform and Development of Basic Education". It is provided by local governments at all levels and it should persist in making the "two basics" their "top priorities" in educational development. In order to further expand 9 :year compulsory schooling, and to keep the literacy rates among young and middle :aged adults above 95%, a basic education programmes with literacy classes as its integral part should be incorporated into the plan for economic and social development. Specific steps should be taken to increase the level of financing so as to create good conditions for the development of basic education

• To improve the mechanism of government leadership, which relates to literacy and post :literacy education characterized by a proper division of labour and cooperation among various governmental departments

• To focus on literacy work among priority areas and groups. Efforts should be redoubled amongst in the literacy work conducted in poor areas, especially minority people and women

• To strengthen in domains related to teaching and learning in literacy work. Literacy education should strive to combine general education with the learning of productive techniques and life skills

• To strengthen the scientific management of literacy work, including periodic reports on the progress of work and inspection.

• The policy of "Preventing first, eradicating second, and upgrading third" should be adhered to. An integrated approach to the planning and coordinated development of basic, vocational, and adult education in the countryside should be adopted, *by pooling the resources of the sectors of education, science and technology, and agriculture and improving the effective utilization of available resources, and *by making necessary adjustments in the geographical distribution of educational institutions and programs. Attention should be paid to neo :literates in disseminating scientific and technical knowledge.

• To strengthen research and training related to rural adult education.

• International cooperation should be developed more

Literacy in India is an indispensable means for effective social and economic participation, contributing to human development and poverty reduction, says UNESCO. The Right to Education is a fundamental human right. UNESCO aims at education for all by 2015.India is one of the countries (along with the Arab states and sub :Saharan Africa) where the literacy levels are still below the threshold level of 75% but gigantic efforts are on to achieve that level. More than three fourths of the country’s male population and above half of the female population is literate. The thrust forward for achieving at least the threshold level of literacy represents the largest ever civil and military mobilization in the country.

Literacy Rate : 61.3%

Male literacy : 75.85%

Female literacy : 54.16%

|Pupil / teacher ratio (primary) |43 |
|Public expenditure on education : |
| as % of GDP | 4.1 |
| as % of total government expenditure |39 |

|Commitment to education : public spending |
|Public expenditure on education (as % of GDP), 1999 :2001 |4.1 |
|Public expenditure on education (as % of total government expenditure), 1999 :2001 |12.7 |
|Public expenditure on education, pre :primary and primary (as % of all levels), 1999 :2001 |38.4 |
|Public expenditure on education, secondary (% of all levels), 1999 :2001 |40.1 |
|Public expenditure on education, tertiary (% of all levels), 1999 :2001 |20.3 |

Government schemes

The Sarva Siksha Abhiyan was launched in 2001 to ensure that all children in the age group 6 :14 years attend school and complete eight years of schooling by 2010. Important components of the scheme are the Education Guarantee Scheme and Alternative and Innovative Education meant primarily for children where there is no formal school within a radius of one kilometre. The centrally sponsored District Primary Education Programme launched in 1994, has so far opened more than 160,000 new schools, including almost 84,000 alternative schools.
Of the estimated population of 205 million in the age group 6 :14 years on March 1, 2002, nearly 82.5 per cent was enrolled in schools. However, drop out in 2002 :03 at the primary level was 34.9 per cent and at the upper primary level, it was 52.8 per cent. The high drop out rate has been a matter of major concern. One of the most popular schemes adopted to attract children to schools is the mid :day meals programme launched in 1995. Several other special programmes have been launched with varying degrees of success.

The National Literacy Mission launched in 1988 aims at attaining a literacy rate of 75 per cent by 2007. It imparts functional literacy to non :literates in the age group of 15 :35 years. The Total Literacy Campaign is the principal strategy of the NLM for eradication of illiteracy. The Continuing Education Scheme provides a learning continuum to the efforts of the Total Literacy and Post :Literacy programmes.

International Literacy Day is celebrated each year on 8th September with the aim to highlight the importance of literacy to individuals, communities and societies.

Social reformation efforts (NGO’s)

Bulk of the illiterates is in the rural areas, where social and economic barriers play an important role in keeping the lowest strata of society illiterate. Government programmes alone, however well intentioned, may not be able break barriers built over the centuries. Major social reformation efforts are required to bring about a change in the rural scenario. Examples of two such efforts are given below. There are many but more are required.
In 2002, Sandeep Pandey won the prestigious Magsaysay Award. While pursuing a Ph.D. in control theory at the University of California :Berkeley, he joined his friends to form Asha (Hope), to support education for poor children in India by tapping the resources of Indians abroad. The enterprising founders raised ten thousand dollars in one year, an auspicious beginning for an organization that now claims thirty :six North :American chapters and has disbursed nearly one million dollars for programs in India. After launching Asha, he himself returned to India, doctorate in hand. He taught briefly at the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology and, in 1992, left the institute to devote himself full :time to Asha’s larger purpose : to bring about socio :economic change in India through education.
The flow of money apart, it was not an easy task. In Ballia district of Uttar Pradesh, he confronted the impoverished world of low :caste families and dalits, or untouchables. Few children went to school at all; even those who did, grew up to swell India’s vast unemployment rolls. With local volunteers in the villages of Reoti and Bhainsaha, Pandey has created schools that instill self :reliance and values for a just society. Asha’s teachers take no pay. Instead, they support themselves with sidelines such as making candles and greeting cards from handmade paper. A fuller expression of his vision is the Asha ashram in the dalit village of Lalpur, outside Lucknow. There, students live and study among traditional artisans and engage in bee :keeping, vegetable gardening, and cottage industries. His award was in recognition of “the empowering example of his commitment to the transformation of India’s marginalized poor.”
The Magsaysay Award for Shantha Sinha in 2003 was in recognition of “her guiding the people of Andhra Pradesh to end the scourge of child labour and send all of their children to school.” As head of an extension program at the University of Hyderabad in 1987, she organized a three :month :long “camp” to prepare children rescued from bonded labour to attend school. Later, in 1991, she guided her family’s Mamidipudi Venkatarangaiya Foundation to take up this idea as part of its overriding mission in Andhra Pradesh. Her original transition camps grew into full :fledged residential “bridge schools.” The foundation is creating a social climate hostile not only to child labour but also to child marriage and other practices that deny children the right to a normal childhood. Today the MV Foundation’s bridge schools and programs extend to 4,300 villages.

The failure part

In his essay on Social Infrastructure As Important As Physical Infrastructure published in India Development Report 2002, Kirit S. Parikh had pointed out, “With a literacy rate of 65, we have 296 million illiterates, age seven years and above, as per the 2001 census. The number of illiterates today exceeds the population of the country of around 270 million at Independence, age seven and above.” The largest segment of the world’s illiterates is in India.
In his book The Argumentative Indian, Amartya Sen notes, on the basis of investigations by Pratichi Trust, set up with the proceeds of his Nobel award, carried out in West Bengal and Jharkhand, that absenteeism of comparatively well :paid teachers, particularly where bulk of the students come from scheduled castes and tribes, poses a major problem. Students are circumstantially forced to go in for private tuitions. He concludes, “Sometimes the very institutions that were created to overcome disparities and barriers have tended to act as reactionary influences in reinforcing inequality… The teachers’ unions, which have a very positive role to play in protecting the interests of teachers and have played that part well in the past, are often turning into an influence that reinforces the neglect of the interests of children from desperately underprivileged families. There is evidence of hardening of class barriers that separate the newly affluent teachers from the impoverished rural poor.”
"Literacy is the ability to identify, understand, interpret, create, communicate and compute, using printed and written materials associated with varying contexts. Literacy involves a continuum of learning to enable an individual to achieve his or her goals, to develop his or her knowledge and potential, and to participate fully in the wider society."

Per Capita Income

Per capita income means how much each individual receives, in monetary terms, of the yearly income that is generated in their country through productive activities. That is what each citizen would receive if the yearly income generated by a country from its productive activities were divided equally among everyone. Per capita income is usually reported in units of currency per year. While per capita income reflects gross national product per capita income when comparing nations, it is also used to compare municipalities within nations. When determining the per capita income of a community, however, it is not economic activity that is divided by the population, but the total personal income.

Although standard of living in India is modest and is constantly improving, India suffers from substantial poverty with 27.5% of the population living below the poverty line in 2004–2005[1]. The single most common indicator used to quantify standard of living is the per capita purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted gross domestic product (GDP). In 2006, the per capita PPP :adjusted GDP for India was US$3,737. These figures can be compared to $7,590 for neighbouring China.
With one of the fastest growing economies in the world, clocked at an average growth rate of 8% between 2004 :2005, India is fast on way to become a large and globally important consumer economy. The Indian middle class, touted to be anywhere between 200 and 300 million, is fast becoming used to Western culture. If current trends continue, Indian per capita purchasing power parity will grow to be approximately one third that of the developed world by the middle of the 21st century. In 2006, 22 percent of Indians lived under the poverty line. India is aimed to eradicate poverty by 2020.
The standard of living in India shows large disparity. For example, rural areas of India exist with very basic (or even non :existent) medical facilities, while cities boast of world class medical establishments. Similarly, The very latest machinery may be used in some construction projects, but many construction workers work without mechanisation in most projects.
Indian economy may have grown at the fastest pace in nearly two decades, but average income of a person is still less than Rs 2,500 a month :a huge contrast to the fact the country has the most billionaires in Asia.
The 9.4 per cent GDP growth during 2006 :07, fastest since 1988 :89 and second :fastest since the country achieved independence, has translated into a per capita income of Rs 29,382 a year or Rs 2,448.5 a month.
Per capita income at current prices rose by 14.3 per cent in 2006 :07 against Rs 25,716 in the previous fiscal, according to figures released by Central Statistical Organisation.

CHINA
Over 300,000 officials are employed by the family planning services in China to try to ensure that the number of people born each year is according to a pre :conceived national plan. An upper age limit is set for young people to get married. No couple can have more than two children. Should a third child be conceived, the woman is forced to go in for abortion. As a result the population of china is well under control and so China has per capita much higher than India.
Ranks as per capita income :

China 115th and India 136th

While the Chinese government with the existing interests in planned economy still shows strong tendencies toward egalitarianism, the results of the reforms have shown wide income disparity. There are large disparities in wage income between the urban and rural residents, between different regions, and even among the urban residents. China is also facing other problems such as unemployment that did not exist under the socialist system. However, the recent changes of fiscal decentralization has weakened the financial base of the central government eroding their ability to redistribute financial resources to the poorer areas and interior provinces. Furthermore, the prevailing communal values are gradually being replaced by growing individualism which has made it more difficult for the government to maintain its efforts on shared prosperity

Such disparities in income between rural and urban residents have created some serious economic and social changes in rural areas. First and the foremost important issue is the emigration of rural population into urban areas. Together with the declining growth rate of China's rural population, the share of the PRC population living in the countryside has fallen from 81 per cent in the early 1980s to 71 per cent in 1996. Secondly, China has been losing about 0.5 per cent of its farm land to conversion annually. Villages and farmers are motivated to sell or lease their land for industrial or commercial use because they are well compensated for such transaction. Lastly, significant population has quit farming in favor of wage imployment or non :agricultural activities such as running small shops. These problems altogether have created serious concerns on producing enough grain for the purpose of self :sufficiency in China.
Wage Income of Rural Residents vs. Urban Residents. [pic]

Source : China Annual Statistics Book, 1997
China should create unique and proper welfare and income redistribution system The authorities should introduce a wide range of policies that are aimed at reducing unemployment and improving the labor forces' competitiveness. Furthermore, government should reduce differences in education, health services, housing and access to employment and credit between urban and rural areas as well as in different regions. The government should create a system for welfare and redistribution of income that is suitable for the current condition of the Chinese economy
Promote a closer cooperation with international organizations.

• Currently World Bank is putting efforts on reducing poverty in China by focusing on rural developmental programs. These projects include promotion of health and education for the poor at the village level, job training, rural infrastructure such as drinking water and village roads, and so forth. The Chinese government not only should allow these multilateral assistance but also actively participate in solving these problems. On August 16 the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Development and Reform Commission announced that they had confirmed with the World Bank that China's national per capita national income has reached US$1,740.

Private Investment
UNDOUBTEDLY, China's track record in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) is far superior to that of India. In fact, India has been considered an "underachiever" in attracting FDI. However, within this otherwise firm conviction about unmatched Chinese superiority in attracting FDI inflows vis :à :vis India, there has occasionally been some scepticism about what all China includes while compiling its FDI figures and consequently about the actual intensity of the FDI gap between China and India as suggested by the official statistics of the respective countries. On the other hand, it has been pointed out in the FDI literature that Indian FDI is hugely under :reported because of non :conformity of India's method of measuring FDI to the international standards.
As a rough approximation, we make the necessary adjustments in China's FDI statistics, that is, by excluding data under several heads that China includes in its FDI, but do not strictly fall under the purview of FDI. These heads include : The round :tripping of funds from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macao into mainland China; inter :company debt transactions; short and long :term loans; financial leasing; trade credits; grants; bonds; non :cash acquisition of equity (tangible and intangible components such as technology fee, brand name, etc.); investment made by foreign venture capital investors; earnings data of indirectly :held FDI enterprises; control premium; non :competition fee; and imported equipment. Having excluded data under these heads, net FDI inflows into China reduce from roughly $40.7 billion to $20.3 billion in 2000.
On the other hand, India's adoption of a somewhat broader method of FDI computation would raise its net annual FDI inflow figures, as reported in the Reserve Bank of India's official balance of payment statistics, from around $3.2 billion to about $8.1 billion in 2000. While the alignment of the Indian FDI with the international norm narrows down the gap between FDI in China and India, merely accomplishing this is not enough to close the actual difference. Together with the ongoing attempts at the alignment of FDI statistics with the global standards, more importantly, there is an urgent need in India to create a conducive investment climate to attract larger sums of FDI from the multinational companies.
Round :tripping of Chinese capital is common knowledge and a large body of literature has evolved around it. Such round tripping is often referred to as a phenomenon, which contributes to swelling of investment of neighbouring countries (mainly, Taiwan and Macao) as also of Hong Kong into mainland China. According to the `round :tripping' hypothesis, Chinese firms illegally transfer funds to these countries and that in turn gets invested in mainland China as FDI inflows in order to benefit from the preferential treatment given to FDI in terms of fiscal and other incentives. Since round :tripping is essentially clandestine, accurate data are practically impossible to obtain. Nevertheless, estimates suggest that round :tripping FDI accounted for one :fourth of China's total FDI.
There are striking elements of non :conformance between the IMF definition of FDI and that used by the RBI for computational purposes. In fact, compared to the international standard, the Indian FDI statistics appears to be limited because it includes only one component — foreign equity capital reported on the basis of issue/transfer of equity or preference shares to foreign direct investors. Some of the principle components that India excludes from the IMF definition while estimating actual FDI inflows are :
1) Reinvested earnings by foreign companies (which are part of foreign investor profits that are not distributed to shareholders as dividends and are reinvested in the affiliates in the host country).
2) Proceeds of foreign equity listings and foreign subordinated loans to domestic subsidiaries as part of inter :company (short and long :term) debt transactions.
3) Overseas commercial borrowings (financial leasing, trade credits, grants, bonds) by foreign direct investors in foreign invested firms.
4) Non :cash acquisition of equity, investment made by foreign venture capital investors, earnings data of indirectly held FDI enterprises, control premium, non :competition fee etc., as per IMF definition, which are normally included in other country statistics.
All of these account for a massive underestimation of FDI in India and therefore with appropriate adjustment (of course, not including all of the above) consistent with IMF standards, the FDI data in India could be substantially enhanced.
As mentioned above, an especially important component of FDI that is excluded in India constitutes the reinvested earnings, which companies so far have reported on a sporadic and voluntary basis. India has had foreign companies here for decades and many of them have reinvested heavily over the years. If the retained earnings from all these are cumulated, then the current returns on the stock of retained earnings would have to be added to the returns on measured FDI. Added together, these total returns would be high relative to the stock of measured FDI. However, even the flow in recent years can increase since several multinationals have been reinvesting their profits in India and this is not being captured as FDI, a practice China adopts.
Citigroup, for example, has reinvested significant earnings in its Indian business over a sustained period — funds that are not captured in the FDI reporting. Its Citibank unit in India has retained earnings of about $350 million but this was not captured in FDI reporting. The recent reinvestment of more than $ 400 million in India by Citibank alone was also not captured in FDI reporting. Similarly, the purchase of around $300 million in non :equity form of direct investment capital by Fiat to recompense the losses sustained by its Indian subsidiary was also not reflected in Indian FDI figures. Also, Coke and Pepsi have invested $1.3 billion in India.
China, contrary to India, adheres to the IMF standard of FDI computing. China includes all the components of IMF in its definition of FDI. It also classifies imported equipment as FDI, while India captures these as imports in its trade data. China's FDI numbers also include a substantial amount of round tripping. In the process, the actual inflows are vastly underestimated in India's FDI reporting in comparison to such countries as China that adhere to the IMF standard of FDI computing.
The non :conformance of India's FDI statistics to international standards has denied the aggregate FDI data for India direct comparability to those of most of the other countries. Especially, the fact that FDI inflows in India are entirely measured on equity investments while ignoring other components implies that FDI inflows into India have been underestimated.
According to an IFC study, "FDI : India and China — A comparison," China's equity capital of FDI in 2000 composed of $6.24 billion of non :cash, $7.28 billion round : tripping, $16.02 billion of reinvested earnings, $1.53 billion of other capital and $7.28 billion of cash out of a total of $38.35 billion FDI in that year. Considering the fact that India's equity capital (cash only) of FDI was $2.32 billion in 2000, this needs to be compared with China's equity capital cash component of $7.25 billion for that year. Further, in 2001, India's FDI, excluding other factors that normally go into the definition of computing FDI, was running at $3.4 billion. This compares favourably with that of China even if its cash component of FDI has slightly increased in 2001.
There is no doubt that Indian FDI inflow figures are underestimated at present. This is because of the exclusion of certain components of FDI measurement by India that are included in other countries, which maintain conformance with the international standards. It is also a matter of concern that the Indian FDI statistics looks significantly small in relation to that of China. But indiscriminate, across :the :board alignment of FDI definition with the IMF stipulation is not meaningful either. To be more precise, we need to update our FDI definition in certain aspects but not in all, even if that quantitatively understates India's FDI vis :à :vis other countries to some extent.
Areas where modification and/or alignment of FDI data in India is required
• Reinvested earnings, which are part of foreign investor profits that are not distributed to shareholders as dividends and are reinvested in the affiliates in the host country, need to be shown as inflow of FDI. Since India has had foreign companies for decades and many of them have reinvested heavily over the years, quantifying this would boost the stock of FDI considerably. However, from a technical point of view, it is well recognised that it is quite difficult to capture `reinvested earnings' through the reporting arrangements for foreign exchange transactions. This is mainly because such transactions do not actually take place and thus have to be imputed in the balance of payments statistics. However, the understatement of the total and reinvested earnings can be prevented by the inclusion of statistics regarding the indirect ownership in subsidiaries, associates and branches, etc.

• The reinvested earnings could also be captured through appropriately designed surveys by government authorities. The reporting system must be made legally mandatory for the companies.

• Reinvested earnings as an offsetting entry (with opposite sign) could also be notionally shown as dividends paid out under current account flows that are recorded under direct investment income.

• FDI flow generated by the direct investor in his subsidiary abroad by borrowing on the subsidiary's local market does not appear in the balance of payments. However this flow could theoretically be accounted for if data collection is based at least in part on a survey system covering direct investors or their affiliates instead of entirely depending on the central banking system.

• The non :cash acquisition of equity, which is in the form of tangible and intangible components such as provision of capital equipment, technology and know :how, brand name, etc., should be included in India's FDI inflows. This is because the non :cash flows have the potential to generate direct and spillover benefits similar to those anticipated from FDI in the form of equity flows, and

• The investment made by foreign venture capital investors should be made part of India's FDI. It has been pointed out that `hundreds of millions' invested through the Venture Capital route do not form part of the FDI reporting which, if adjusted, could substantially enhance FDI data.

(Dr Nirupam Bajpai is a Senior Development Advisor and Director of the South Asia Program at the Center on Globalization and Sustainable Development (CGSD), Columbia University. Nandita Dasgupta is a Consultant at CGSD.)

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
India is following the demographic transition pattern of all developing countries from initial levels of "high birth rate high death rate" to the current intermediate transition stage of "high birth rate low death rate" which leads to high rates of population growth, before graduating to levels of "low birth rate low death rate".
1. Age Composition The age distribution of the population of India is projected to change by 2016, and these changes should determine allocation of resources in policy intervention. The population below 15 years of age (currently 35 percent) is projected to decline to 28 percent by 2016. The population in the age group 15 -59 years (currently 58 percent) is projected to increase to nearly 64 percent by 2016. The age group of 60 plus years is projected to increase from the current levels of 7 percent to nearly 9 percent by 2016.
Age Composition as Percentage of the Total Population2
Year |Below 5 years |Between 0-15 |Between >15-59 years |+ 60 years | |1991 |12.80 |37.76 |55.58 |6.67 | |2001 |10.70 |34.33 |58.70 |6.97 | |2011 |10.10 |28.48 |63.38 |8.14 | |2016 |9.7 |27.73 |63.33 |8.94 | |2. Inter-State Differences

India is a country of striking demographic diversity. Substantial differences are visible between states in the achievement of basic demographic indices. This has led to significant disparity in current population size and the potential to influence population increases during 1996-2016. There are wide inter-state, male-female and rural-urban disparities in outcomes and impacts. These differences stem largely from poverty, illiteracy, and inadequate access to health and family welfare services, which coexist and reinforce each other. In many parts, the widespread health infrastructure is not responsive.

Current population of INDIA, the ratio of this population to the country population, the infant mortality rate and the contraceptive prevalence rate is shown.

State |Population Size (in millions) as on 1 March 1999* |Total Fertility Rate 1997 |Infant Mortality Rate 1998 |Contraceptive Prevalence rate 1999 | |INDIA |981.3 |3.3 |72 |44% | | Source: Registrar General of India

The five states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh that currently constitute nearly 44 percent of the total population, are projected to comprise 48 percent of the total population in 2016. in other words, these states alone will contribute and anticipated 55 percent increase during the period 1996-2016. demographic outcomes in these states will determine the timing and size of population at which India achieves population stabilsation.

3. Maternal Mortality

16% of the world's population, India accounts for over 20% of the world's maternal deaths. The maternal mortality ratio, defined as the number of maternal deathsper 100,000 live births, is incredibly high at 408 per 100,000 live births for the country (GOI 1997), which is unacceptable when compared to current indices elsewhere in Asia.

Maternal Mortality Ratios in Asia3
Sri Lanka |China |Thailand |Pakistan |Indonesia |India |Bangladesh |Nepal | |30 |115 |200 |340 |390 |437 |850 |1500 | |Within India, the inter-state differentials are a matter of concern.

Inter-State Differences within India in Maternal Mortality Ratios4
Kerala |Bihar |Madhya Pradesh |Rajasthan |Uttar Pradesh |Orissa | |87 |451 |498 |607 |707 |739 | |4. Infant Mortality

It is estimated that about 7 percent of new-born infants perish within a year. Poor maternal health results in low birth weight and premature babies. Infant and childhood diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory infections and malnutrition contribute to high infant mortality rates. Additionally, in India, across the board (rural or urban areas), there are more female deaths in the age group of 0-14 than elsewheres. Although the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) has decreased from 146 per 1000 births in 1951 to 72 per 1000 births (1997), and the sex differentials are narrowing, again there are wide inter-state differences recorded in 1998.

Infant Mortality Rates in Asia6

Sri Lanka |Thailand |China |Indonesia |India |Pakistan |Bangladesh |Nepal | |18 |29 |41 |48 |72 |74 |79 |83 | |
5. Sex Ratio
India shares a distinctive feature of South Asian and Chinese populations as regards the sex ratio, with a century's old deficit of females. The (female to male) sex ratio has been steadily declining. From 1901 to 1991, the sex ratio has declined from 972 to 927. This is largely attributed to the son preference, discrimination against the girl child leading to lower female literacy, female foeticide, higher fertility and higher mortality levels for females, in all age groups up to 45.
China
Since the beginning of the second half of the twentieth century, Chinese officials recognized the problems caused by overpopulation. Unfortunately, there were cultural and political forces preventing early attempts at limiting the number of births. Culturally, it had always been a sign of luck and future prosperity to have many sons. Thomas Scharping points to proverbs such as “many sons bring much riches” that indicate the extent to which the desire for multi-child families was ingrained in Chinese culture (Scharping 11). Politically, Chairman Mao advocated a similar belief. In a speech explaining his communist vision for the future of his nation, he said, “Even if Chaina’s population multiplies many times, she is fully capable of finding a solution; the solution is production” (Mao Zedong 452). Both the cultural and political stance connected a large population to prosperity, and it was difficult for government officials to overcome the prevailing bias.
China’s first modern census was first cause of birth control, as the 580 million people reported were larger than expected and because it predicted a population total of 800 million for 1967 (Scharping). Political advisors to the state conducted their first analysis of population data and recommended that something must be done to prevent high joblessness, poverty, and starvation. The history of birth control measures thus reads as a battle between hard-liners who analyze data and want to limit population growth as quickly as possible, and the personal desire of a vast population to have more children.
Even in 1988, 92% of respondents to an informal survey said, “birth planning was incompatible with the cultural tradition of their area” (Scharping 235). The following timeline is indicative of the two steps forward, one step back chronology of implementation executed by the Chinese government.
1953: China’s first modern census reports population of 580 million and predicts 800 million for 1967. Regulation of Contraception and Induced Abortion approved.

1954: Legalization and introduction of contraceptives for the first time. Sterilization allowed, but limited to health problems.

1958-1961: Great Leap Forward: birth control propaganda ceased completely Mao accepts population of “1 billion and some hundred millions more.”

1962 : State Council demands that everyone have access to contraceptives, especially in urban centers. Local guidelines recommended no more than 2 or 3 children per family, but it is not enforced.

1965: Counsel beings to target rural as well as urban areas.

1971-1972: Late marriage requirements are enforced at 23-25 for women and 25-28 for men, as is a spacing rule of 4 years between first and second children. (By 1973 Mao Zedong identified himself with the family planning movement, attaching his name and power to the cause.)

1979: Birth planning bureaus are established to limit couples to one birth, but to tolerate two. (Couples with only one child were given a “one-child certificate” entitling them to such benefits as cash bonuses, longer maternity leave, better child care, and preferential housing assignments. In return, they were required to pledge that they would not have more children.)

1980: Laws passed to ensure financial ruin for any couple who has more than one child.

1981: Lowered marriage age laws to 20 and 22 years old to placate population. Government prosecutes doctors who are illegally removing IUDs, providing pre-birth reports on the sex of the child.

1982: Minister of State Birth-Planning Commission says that in couples with two or more children, one member of the couple must be sterilized. (2.68 million new sterilizations and 210,000 other measures are taken in Jan 1983, alone.)

1984: Law passed allowing all peasants who consent to a late birth of their first child and to an extended birth interval of eight to ten years to have a second child in rural areas.

1986: Laxness (more 2nd child permits granted) and loss of control after positive results of survey in 1985 when goals were almost met

1991: Highest number of contraceptive operations and abortions since 1983. Sterilization even for parents of a single daughter

1993: Unprecedented lows in children per women have been matched by unprecedented highs in sex proportion at birth. Figures for missing infant girls have been such that in 1992 and 1993 the centre felt prompted to convene another national conference on this subject and to circulate prohibitions of prenatal sex determination and infanticide.

The Chinese government is accused of everything from pressure from propaganda to horror stories of local government representatives who force abortions and murder unwanted children. This is where the separation between those who make policy and those who enforce it comes into play. Chinese officials have consistently admitted that isolated, uncondoned abuses of the program occur and that they condemn such acts, but they insisted that the family planning program was administered on a voluntary basis using persuasion and economic measures only (Aird, Xinzhong).

Graphical Analysis India China
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