How Did The Korean Reunification Through Military Conflict?
Introduction
The debate on Korean reunification has generated many literature and analysis on the most likely reunification scenario. The debate is crucial as each set of scenario will result in different implications for regional and international players, as well as their economic and political environment.
This paper argues that reunification through military conflict is the most likely scenario. Specifically, North Korea will lead a major attack which will result in a counter-attack by South Korea and the United States (U.S.). The first section of this paper will introduce the three interest groups that influence North Korea’s decision making, that are, the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP), Korean People’s Army (KPA), and the cabinet. This section …show more content…
The state acts as the main actor in the international arena. The ideologies of socialism, Juche, and Songun penetrate interaction between units. It consistently and continuously makes decisions to pursue national interests, with focus on economic and military power. For example, it developed the nuclear weapons program to gain hegemony over South Korea and deter foreign forces from conducting strikes against it. North Korea’s objective of exporting weapons and technology was to earn foreign exchange that would enable it to repair its economy. It prefers balance of power to be the existing international order. North Korea views China and Russia as its allies that could balance the international order against foreign powers such as the U.S. On several counts, China and Russia vetoed against United Nations resolutions that sanction North Korea. It is also smart enough to know that allies are not forever lasting, and relentlessly pursued policies of economic nationalism and self-reliance, especially when it felt it could depend less on its …show more content…
Many Washington hawks and academics have predicted the implosion of North Korea’s regime upon the death of Kim Il Sung. They were proven wrong. Small scale private businesses have taken place. Mobile phones, fax machines, and South Korean music are increasingly being smuggled into North Korea black market. Information transmission within South Korea is faster than the past. However, one must acknowledge that the notion of loyalty and devotion to the party and leader is deeply imbued amongst many North Koreans. In an interview conducted by Ministry of Reunification of Korea with North Korean defectors, most of the interviewees maintained that North Korea will not collapse in the near future, that the Dear Leader is benevolent and loving, and North Korea is powerful. With these mind-sets, the North Koreans lack the motivation to band together and overthrow the Kim’s regime. Small scale private businesses also act as a shock-absorber mechanism that allows commoners to supplement their low earnings, instead of becoming the factor for revolution. Mobile devices in North Korea cannot access information outside of North Korea and are most likely to be monitored. Implosion of the regime is constrained by limiting factors. Also, the absorption of North Korea by the South is projected to cost $800 billion USD over ten years, a cost that
The debate on Korean reunification has generated many literature and analysis on the most likely reunification scenario. The debate is crucial as each set of scenario will result in different implications for regional and international players, as well as their economic and political environment.
This paper argues that reunification through military conflict is the most likely scenario. Specifically, North Korea will lead a major attack which will result in a counter-attack by South Korea and the United States (U.S.). The first section of this paper will introduce the three interest groups that influence North Korea’s decision making, that are, the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP), Korean People’s Army (KPA), and the cabinet. This section …show more content…
The state acts as the main actor in the international arena. The ideologies of socialism, Juche, and Songun penetrate interaction between units. It consistently and continuously makes decisions to pursue national interests, with focus on economic and military power. For example, it developed the nuclear weapons program to gain hegemony over South Korea and deter foreign forces from conducting strikes against it. North Korea’s objective of exporting weapons and technology was to earn foreign exchange that would enable it to repair its economy. It prefers balance of power to be the existing international order. North Korea views China and Russia as its allies that could balance the international order against foreign powers such as the U.S. On several counts, China and Russia vetoed against United Nations resolutions that sanction North Korea. It is also smart enough to know that allies are not forever lasting, and relentlessly pursued policies of economic nationalism and self-reliance, especially when it felt it could depend less on its …show more content…
Many Washington hawks and academics have predicted the implosion of North Korea’s regime upon the death of Kim Il Sung. They were proven wrong. Small scale private businesses have taken place. Mobile phones, fax machines, and South Korean music are increasingly being smuggled into North Korea black market. Information transmission within South Korea is faster than the past. However, one must acknowledge that the notion of loyalty and devotion to the party and leader is deeply imbued amongst many North Koreans. In an interview conducted by Ministry of Reunification of Korea with North Korean defectors, most of the interviewees maintained that North Korea will not collapse in the near future, that the Dear Leader is benevolent and loving, and North Korea is powerful. With these mind-sets, the North Koreans lack the motivation to band together and overthrow the Kim’s regime. Small scale private businesses also act as a shock-absorber mechanism that allows commoners to supplement their low earnings, instead of becoming the factor for revolution. Mobile devices in North Korea cannot access information outside of North Korea and are most likely to be monitored. Implosion of the regime is constrained by limiting factors. Also, the absorption of North Korea by the South is projected to cost $800 billion USD over ten years, a cost that