Harvard Business Review Case- Revere Street
After analysis of Mr. Alexander’s proposal, it is obvious why he should take advantage of a real estate investment opportunity. The experience he would gain coupled with the added income would establish a solid foundation for making more investments in the future. To this end, however, I find Alexander’s plan for the Revere Street property falls short. A major deficiency is that his projections are almost entirely predicated on estimates and assumptions that are neither conservative nor reliable. In a similar vein, Alexander’s “DIY” approach is not only exemplar of naiveté, but also suggestive of many implications that were overlooked in his proposal. And, even more discouraging, a best-case scenario analysis reveals that even without complication, there is little room for error afforded by the plan. Therefore, I would not advise Alexander to move forward with his investment strategy, as its potential for reward is far outweighed by its risk. In a vacuum, Alexander’s proposal would be very feasible and attractive, but in reality the real estate and rental industries are incredibly volatile and hard to predict even for specialists in those fields. The success of Alexander’s proposal is not just contingent upon a host of variables, but variables forecasted by an amateur lacking a sense of conservatism. To begin, the projected costs of the project include no allowance for incidentals. This is a giant red flag. Even if Alexander outsourced certain responsibilities to experts, the likelihood of error and unforeseen costs in bidding for a property, closing the sale, major construction and renovation, and managing a rental property is almost certain. So, without a contingency reserve, the problems are obvious. But even worse, Alexander, a nonspecialist in any of these pursuits, is the one handling a majority of these functions- this means it is no longer a question of will there be unforeseen costs, but actually how much should be anticipated? On this front alone I am