Forecasting Models for Yield Estimation
Prediction or forecasting is a common phenomenon for which all human beings are always eager to know. The pre-knowledge about unknown and uncertain future prepare them to cope up in an efficient way. Since the dawn of civilization, this desire has been satisfied by priests, astrologers, fortune tellers, etc. In the present scenario, the necessity of predicting future is fulfilled in ample ways. There are several forecasting methods available from simplest to some of the most complicated; from judgmental to quantitative.
Forecasting, in true essence, is a branch of the anticipatory sciences used for identifying and projecting alternative possible future. It plays vital role in most of our activities and in all we do concerning the future. Weather prediction, staff scheduling, business, production planning and multistage management decision analysis are among distinctive examples of forecasting areas. In such fields people want to foresee as closely as possible and plan for the future. In broad terms, a forecast is simply a statement, based upon some criteria, concerning the future condition of a system. It opens menu windows onto future. It is a medium guiding towards plans for the development of a better future as the forecasted visions give an alternative to plan, design, shape, and cope with future.
To make a forecast with 100% accuracy may not be possible, but efforts are made to reduce the forecasting errors or increase the speed of the forecasting process. For these forecasts, to be accurate, either no major change should occur from conditions that have prevailed during the past or such changes must be canceled out. Otherwise, forecasting errors are possible, unless some appropriate prudence about the direction of the forthcoming changes is developed.
In the fast-paced and rapidly changing world, the future will be vastly different from the present in a number of ways. Furthermore, because of constant development of knowledge and advances in various
Forecasting, in true essence, is a branch of the anticipatory sciences used for identifying and projecting alternative possible future. It plays vital role in most of our activities and in all we do concerning the future. Weather prediction, staff scheduling, business, production planning and multistage management decision analysis are among distinctive examples of forecasting areas. In such fields people want to foresee as closely as possible and plan for the future. In broad terms, a forecast is simply a statement, based upon some criteria, concerning the future condition of a system. It opens menu windows onto future. It is a medium guiding towards plans for the development of a better future as the forecasted visions give an alternative to plan, design, shape, and cope with future.
To make a forecast with 100% accuracy may not be possible, but efforts are made to reduce the forecasting errors or increase the speed of the forecasting process. For these forecasts, to be accurate, either no major change should occur from conditions that have prevailed during the past or such changes must be canceled out. Otherwise, forecasting errors are possible, unless some appropriate prudence about the direction of the forthcoming changes is developed.
In the fast-paced and rapidly changing world, the future will be vastly different from the present in a number of ways. Furthermore, because of constant development of knowledge and advances in various