Exammyydj
2013
PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5
PMGT5891 Project Risk Management
Assignment 2 – Group 5
Name: Felipe Arcila Eric Jonathan Ernst Bodamer Xintao Hou Minjie Shi Vagi William Student ID: 420160957 420177232 420149985 309108152 430154654
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PMGT589 – Project Risk Management 6/15/2013
PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5
Table of Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Activity 1 – PERT Model ..................................................................................................... 2 Activity 2 – Monte Carlo Model ......................................................................................... 4 Activity 3 – Decision Tree Model ....................................................................................... 7 Activity 4 - Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................... 9 Activity 5 – Methods Comparison.................................................................................... 12 Activity 6 – Risks Transferring .......................................................................................... 14 References ....................................................................................................................... 19
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PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5
1. Activity 1 – PERT Model
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a network analysis technique which is used to estimate project duration when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the individual activity duration estimates (Schwalbe 2013). PERT is an ‘event-oriented’ technique which uses arrow diagram to identify critical activities that need to be completed in order to finish the project. Besides, PERT also uses statistical distribution to provide probabilistic estimate of project duration derived from three estimates listed below (Marchewka 2010). Optimistic estimate: the minimum possible
PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5
PMGT5891 Project Risk Management
Assignment 2 – Group 5
Name: Felipe Arcila Eric Jonathan Ernst Bodamer Xintao Hou Minjie Shi Vagi William Student ID: 420160957 420177232 420149985 309108152 430154654
0
PMGT589 – Project Risk Management 6/15/2013
PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5
Table of Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Activity 1 – PERT Model ..................................................................................................... 2 Activity 2 – Monte Carlo Model ......................................................................................... 4 Activity 3 – Decision Tree Model ....................................................................................... 7 Activity 4 - Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................... 9 Activity 5 – Methods Comparison.................................................................................... 12 Activity 6 – Risks Transferring .......................................................................................... 14 References ....................................................................................................................... 19
1
PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5
1. Activity 1 – PERT Model
The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a network analysis technique which is used to estimate project duration when there is a high degree of uncertainty about the individual activity duration estimates (Schwalbe 2013). PERT is an ‘event-oriented’ technique which uses arrow diagram to identify critical activities that need to be completed in order to finish the project. Besides, PERT also uses statistical distribution to provide probabilistic estimate of project duration derived from three estimates listed below (Marchewka 2010). Optimistic estimate: the minimum possible
References: Durrett, R. (2010). Probability: theory and examples (Vol. 3). Cambridge university press. Heldman, K., & Mangano, V. (2009). PMP Project Management Professional Exam Review Guide. Sybex. Marchewka, JT 2010, Information Technology Project Management, 3rd edn, John Wiley & Sons Inc., Asia Newell, M. W. (2005). Preparing for the Project Management Professional: PMP Certification Exam. AMACOM Div American Mgmt Assn. Schwalbe, K. (2013). Information Technology Project Management: Project Management, Course Technology, Cengage Learning. Stewart, R. D., Wyskida, R. M., & Johannes, J. D. (Eds.). (1995). Cost estimator 's reference manual (Vol. 15). Wiley-Interscience. 19