Environmental Science Final Study Guide
Environmental Science Final Study Guide
ENERGY
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Energy is the capacity to do work (Work = Force x Distance) or to move matter.
Different forms of energy: o Chemical energy o Radiant energy o Solar energy o Thermal energy o Mechanical energy o Nuclear energy
o Electrical energy Kinetic energy (moving energy) o Associated with motion (wind, water, electricity) o Associated with heat
o Electromagnetic radiation Potential energy (stored energy) o Can be changed to kinetic energy Energy is transformed or changed often
o First Law of Thermodynamics: whenever energy is converted from one form to another in a physical or chemical change, no energy is created or destroyed. We cannot get more energy out of a change than we put into it!
Everything we do requires energy! ~92% of world’s commercial energy comes from non-‐renewable resources!
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Fossil fuels à coal, oil and natural gas Remnants of plants and organisms formed over millennia
Coal • Coal is relatively abundant:
• US supplies could last 200-‐250 years
• Global supplies could last 250-‐1000 years
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Coal produces 40% of world’s electricity and is used for heavy industry (steel and iron) Coal-‐burning power plant
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Two types of coal mining: Surface and sub-‐surface (underground) Surface mining accounts for 60% of all coal mines in US
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Mountain-‐top mining
• Coal is highly flammable near surface and impossible to extinguish
Environmental impacts of burning coal? • Climate change: coal combustion is highest emitter of carbon dioxide – a greenhouse gas. o +25% of all global emissions and +44% of all US emissions o One 500 MW power plant à 3 million tons /year CO2 o Twice the CO2 as natural gas o “Factories of death” – James Hansen • Air pollution: release of particulate matter, toxic heavy metals (i.e. mercury) and sulfur and nitrogen oxides o Acid deposition or “acid rain” o Smog o Human health (~20,000 premature deaths annually –NAS report
• Toxic coal ash: left behind after combustion and full of heavy metals (arsenic, mercury, lead, cadmium) o Stored underground or in slurry ponds that can leach into surface and/or ground water
o Coal ash spill near Knoxville, TN in 2008 – “Largest environmental spill of its kind.” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/27/us/27sludge.html External damage of coal (non-‐climate related) = $62 billion or 3.2 cents per kilo-‐watt hour (NAS report 2009) • Coal consumption is increasing globally (decreasing in US)! • Coal is relatively abundant and cheap!
• Vital for economies and economic development!
• Severe environmental and human health problems! o “The Big Climate Question” What about “clean coal”? • Petroleum or Crude Oil • Petroleum or crude oil: hundreds of connected hydro-‐carbons that contain trace amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and oxygen (impurities) – black, oily substance as it comes out of ground!
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Oil generally found together in geologic formations Oil is refined for different uses
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Major use of oil is as fuel
Who has the petroleum / oil? • Oil is unevenly distributed globally
• Proven oil reserves: identified deposits from which crude oil can be extracted profitably at current prices with current technology • Peak production: pressure in well drops and production of oil or natural gas declines
• Global Peak Oil: point at which global oil production has reached its maximum. • A global problem or “groundless” debate about Peak Oil? Peak Oil • If global oil consumption remains constant (2o1o levels) proven reserves will lasts between 46 and 85 years • “All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.”
-‐-‐William Cummings of Exxon-‐Mobil _______________ • Peak oil theories are “increasingly groundless” because oil production will increase substantially in years to come.
-‐-‐ Bob Dudley BP
• What factors determine how long petroleum / oil reserves will last? • We do not know how many additional oil wells will be found
About 80% of all production wells were discovered before 1973 and most have started to decline • 9 out of 21 largest oil fields are in decline • We do not know what technological breakthroughs will occur • Will new technologies allow us to squeeze more out of existing oil fields or exploit new ones?
• Oil’s “Final Frontier”? What factors determine how long oil reserves will last? • We do not know the rate of future oil consumption o The world now consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day or about 40,000 gallons per second o Oil consumption has been growing at 2.3% per year Natural Gas • Conventional natural gas
o Found near oil and made up of mixture of gases
o Mostly methane with smaller amounts of butane, propane and ethane • Non-‐conventional natural gas o Shale gas, tight gas, coal bed methane, methane hydrates • Natural gas processing •
Natural Gas -‐ Prospects • Long-‐term prospects better than oil reserves but how long natural gas reserves last depends on host of factors
What are the environmental impacts of petroleum/oil and natural gas? • Climate change: carbon dioxide emissions are a direct result of the burning oil and natural gas (but also coal).
• Air pollution: burning oil releases significant amount of particulate matter, and sulfur and nitrogen oxides o Results in acid deposition and smog, which have serious ecological and human health impacts
o Natural gas contains little sulfur, less CO2 and no particulate matter when compared to oil and coal. o Hidden external costs of fossil fuels – (20,000 people die prematurely every year) • Water pollution:
o Hydrologic fracturing technique may affect surface and groundwater
• Problems extracting and transporting oil and natural gas Given our Challenges what can/should we do?
• 1. Look aggressively for and secure more oil and natural gas? • 2. Use fewer fossil fuels – conservation and efficiency? • 3. Develop alternative energy sources?
• 4. All of the above?
Let’s look for more petroleum and/or natural gas… • Develop Canada’s tar sands o Tar sands: mixtures of clay, sand, water and organic bitumen – a tar like heavy oil with high sulfur content
o Canada has 75% of world’s supply
o May contain 300 billion barrels! • One problem – exploiting tar sands is environmentally destructive • Develop the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska • Is drilling in ANWR worth it?
• What does the US population think?
o Varies with gas prices (42% favored drilling in Feb 2008 & 50% in June 2008) • What do Alaskan’s think? o Alaskans ~72% support oil and gas development
• More shale gas development… Nuclear Energy • Energy released through nuclear fission • A brief history of nuclear energy • Radioactive decay o As radioactive elements emit radiation (rays of invisible energy) – its nucleus changes into a more stable element o EX: radioactive nucleus of U-‐235 decays over time into Pb-‐207 o Each radioactive element has its own rate of decay • Half-‐life: time required for one-‐half of the total amount of radioactive substance to change into a different material • Nuclear energy involved changes to the nuclei of atoms • Nuclear fuel cycle: process involved in producing fuel used in nuclear reactors and disposing of the radioactive wastes
• Uranium ore -‐-‐ a mineral – is used in conventional nuclear power plants • Non-‐renewable resource found in limited quantities o Australia 20% o Kazakhstan 18% o US 10%
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o Canada 10% o South Africa 10% Uranium enrichment: ore is refined to increase concentration of U-‐235 and processed into small pellets
Nuclear reactor: device that initiates and maintains controlled nuclear fission chain reaction to produce electricity Pellets that are packed into fuel rod and grouped into fuel assemblies 200 rods per assembly and 150-‐200 assemblies per reactor Final steps of fuel cycle:
o Radioactive “spent” fuel must be safely stored for thousands of years
o Nuclear plants must be retired after life span (15-‐60 years) – radioactive materials must be stored or disposed of Nuclear power today:
US: 104 nuclear reactors in 31 states o Accounts for 8-‐9% of overall energy and 19-‐20% of all electricity • France: 59 reactors – 77% of all electricity Controversies over nuclear energy
1.) Costs: Why so expensive?
o Up front costs high – so delays very expensive o Technology is complex
o Decommissioning expensive o Regulatory compliance expensive • Nuclear power plants require government $$$ – would not exist without government support! •
2.) Weapons proliferation:
o Enrichment of reactor-‐grade uranium can be weapons grade o Reprocessing more efficient but plutonium useful for nuclear weapons o Disposal pools and dry casks susceptible to attack 3.) Safety: once “glamorous reactors” now dreaded • Three-‐Mile Island (1979 4.) Storage of radioactive wastes o Need to store and secure spent nuclear fuel for 10,000 to 250,000 years!
o Currently have 350,000 metric tons (800 million lbs.) of nuclear waste stored at 65 nuclear power plants
Case Timeline I • -‐-‐1974: India explodes a “peaceful nuclear device” • -‐-‐1982: Nuclear Waste Policy Act -‐-‐ “permanent solution” to the waste disposal problem • -‐-‐1985: 3 finalist candidate sites: WA, TX, NV • -‐-‐1987: Congress à DOE shall only consider Yucca Mountain • -‐-‐2004: Federal Court à must consider safety 1 million years from now (not 10,000) Case Timeline II • -‐-‐2004: First time Senate defunds Yucca
• -‐-‐2005: Studies not consistent on feasibility of site
• 2005-‐2007: Political fights over Yucca
• -‐-‐2008: Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepts DOE’s application for site construction • -‐-‐2009: Obama administration drops Yucca Mountain from federal budget, says “no longer a viable option” • Yucca Mountain – a looming controversy and no consensus
o Was this a good site after all? o Transportation risk o After 38 years, we would need another Yucca Mountain o Cost -‐-‐ < $10 billion so far
• Nuclear power split the environmental movement. Why?
• What are other options exist for generating electricity?
Solar Energy • Benefits of solar?
o No pollution or greenhouse gases during operation – low environmental impact
o No moving parts, safe and quiet
o Compared to other energy options -‐-‐ fast to install
• Solar Energy Generating Systems, CA
-‐-‐largest thermal solar power plant in world
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"The U.S. is on pace to install as much solar power this year as it did in this century's entire first decade: at least 2,500 megawatts, the equivalent of more than two nuclear-‐power plants." Are there problems with solar?
o Costs
o Efficiency o Need access to sun o Land use impacts o Environmental costs in production and transportation
Costs • Efficiency of electricity generation
Land use impacts o “With today's commercial systems, the solar energy resource in a 100-‐ by-‐100-‐mile area of Nevada could supply the United States with all of its electricity. If these systems were distributed to the 50 states, the land required from each state would be an area of about 17 by 17 miles. This area is available now from parking lots, rooftops, and vacant land. In fact, 90% of America's current electricity needs could be supplied with solar electric systems built on the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites in our nation's cities.” Wind Energy • What are the advantages of wind energy? o No pollution or greenhouse gas emissions during operation o Relatively efficient o Abundant & widely distributed o Moderate capital costs to install •
Any drawbacks?
o Location
o Aesthetics and noise o Bird mortality • “The best wind farms in the world already produce power as economically as coal, gas and nuclear generators; the average wind farm will be fully competitive by 2016.”
Can We Increase Energy Efficiency • Energy efficiency – measure of how much work we can get from each unit of energy we use • Why do we waste electricity?
o Energy is and has been artificially cheap! o Few incentives to conserve electricity or create new technologies!
o Habits die hard!
• what about transportation? • 2/3 of all petroleum oil consumption • What about increasing fuel efficiency of cars and trucks?
• What about more reliance on biofuels? o Biodiesel: biofuel produced from vegetable oils (i.e., fats from restaurants) or produced from soybeans, rapeseeds, sunflowers & oil palms. o Ethanol: biofuel made from plants such as sugarcane, corn and switch-‐ grass. § Convert starch in plant material to simply sugars that are processed into ethanol Advantages of Biofuels (over oil) • Oil is concentrated in small number of countries -‐-‐ biofuels can be grown almost anywhere • If crops not used faster than can be replenished à no net increase in CO2 emissions – [UNLESS existing forests or grasslands are cleared to raise the new crops] • Biofuels are available, easy to store and transport in existing fuel networks (bridge technology)! • Can reduce CO2 emissions by 70% (if forests are not cleared!) Disadvantages? • Decrease biodiversity through land clearing • Increase erosion • Displace farmers • Raise food prices Transitioning to a “soft energy path”? • Moving from reliance on non-‐renewable fossil fuels and nuclear energy to improved energy efficiency and a mix of renewable resources • How do we make the shift to more sustainable energy path? So what is the future? •
“WE will need fossil fuels like oil and gas for the foreseeable future. So there’s really little choice (sigh). We have to press ahead with fracking for natural gas. We must approve the Keystone XL pipeline to get Canadian oil.” (New York Times 3/23/2013) • “It’s absolutely not true that we need natural gas, coal or oil — we think it’s a myth,… You could power America with renewables from a technical and economic standpoint. The biggest obstacles are social and political — what you need is the will to do it.”
Water Energy Food Nexus •
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Food, water and energy systems are all deeply inter-‐connected and dependent on each other A disturbance in one system will alter the other systems Sustainability will require modifications in all three
AIR AND AIR POLLUTION What are the challenges of air pollution? o No “out of sight, out of mind” -‐ air (and polluted air) is hard to avoid o Air linked to other forms of pollution o Not a new concern! The Atmosphere • Troposphere and stratosphere à
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Troposphere: air mass found closest to the earth’s surface – the air we breathe o Extends 5-‐11 miles upwards o ¾ of mass of air o 99% of volume of air we breathe is two gases – nitrogen and oxygen o 1% trace gases – water vapor, argon, CO2, methane (CH4), ozone (O3) (also soot and dust) o Air currents, winds and concentrations of gases play major role in weather and climate!
• Stratosphere o Extends 11-‐30 miles upwards o Similar in composition to troposphere BUT contains 1/1000 of water vapor and much more ozone (O3) • Stratospheric ozone makes up “ozone layer” o Located in lower part of stratosphere and blocks 95% of sun’s ultraviolet (UV) radiation from reaching earth’s surface o Ozone layer vital for life on earth!
Loss of the Ozone layer • 1980s: found that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) depleting ozone layer o CFCs: “dream chemicals” used as coolant in air conditioners & fridges; propellant for aerosol spray cans; cleaners • Depletion of ozone layer damaging to wildlife and humans as more UV radiation reaches earth – more eye cataracts, sunburns, skin cancer • International treaty to ban CFCs – Montreal Protocol (1987)
• Air pollution: presence of chemicals in the atmosphere in concentrations high enough to harm organisms, ecosystems and human-‐made materials o Natural sources: dust, wildfires, volcanic eruptions, plants o Human sources: burning of fossil fuels for power and industrial purposes (stationary) and cars (mobile sources) o Primary pollutants: emitted directly into troposphere from source (CO, HCs, SO2, NO2) o Secondary pollutants: reaction with primary pollutants (or component of air) to create a new pollutant (SO3, NO3, H2SO4, O3) Six Critical Air Pollutants • Carbon oxides • Nitrogen oxides and nitric acid • Sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid • Particulate matter • Ozone • Volatile organic compounds 1) Carbon Oxides • Carbon monoxide (CO) • Colorless and odorless • Sources: combustion of carbon containing fuels – 50% from vehicle exhaust • Impacts: “driver fatigue”, heart disease, respiratory ailments •
Levels fluctuate daily in urban areas – why?
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
o Colorless and odorless o 93% of CO2 naturally-‐occurring – 7% from human activity (burning of fossil fuels, clearing forest/grasslands) o Only recently has CO2 been considered a pollutant as growing levels threaten the earth’s climate 2) Nitrogen oxides and nitric acid • NO (nitric oxide) – colorless gas -‐-‐ forms during combustion o Sources: 89% natural / 11% human • NO reacts with oxygen to form nitrogen dioxide (NO2) – reddish-‐brown gas • NO and NO2 known as nitrogen oxides (NOx) – play a role in formation of photochemical smog • NOx impacts respiratory functions (asthma and bronchitis) • Some NO2 reacts with water vapor to form nitric acid (HNO3) à component of acid deposition • N2O (nitrous oxide) is a GHG emitted from fertilizers and animal waste 3) Sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid • Sulfur dioxide – colorless and strong odor o Sources: 30% natural sources / 70% human (coal-‐fired power and industrial plants; smelting, oil refining) o Impacts: visibility, damage to metals/paints; respiratory problems • SO2 converted into droplets of sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and particles of sulfate – return to earth as acid deposition 4) Particulates • “Particulate matter” (PM) – solid particles or liquid droplets small and light enough to remain suspended in air • PM 10 and PM 2.5 (microns) o Sources: 60% natural sources and 40% human (coal burning and industrial plants, motor vehicles) – diesel engines! o Impacts: Lung damage, respiratory issues, reproductive problems, cancer
§ Children very susceptible – why?
5) Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) • Organic compounds (hydrocarbons) in atmosphere • Methane o Sources: natural (plants, wetlands) and human (rice paddies, landfills, oil wells, burping cows) OR in
• Benzene o Sources: industrial processes, cleansers, fossil fuels • Impacts: GHG emissions (methane), reproductive & respiratory ailments, cancer (benzene) 6) Ozone • Ozone (O3)
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Created by chemical reactions b/t nitrogen oxides and VOCs in presence of sunlight • Major ingredient in photochemical smog • Ozone causes significant respiratory problems and heart disease
Key air pollution issues
• 1) Industrial smog o Caused by burning of large amounts of coal – mix of sulfur dioxide, sulfuric acid and particulate matter o Developed countries problem has been reduced b/c technologies and height of smokestacks
o Major problem in developing world (China, India, etc) • 2) Photochemical smog o Mixture of primary and secondary pollutants formed under influence of UV radiation § Commuter traffic releases large amounts of NO and VOCs § NO converted to NO2 à NO2 reacts with UV radiation and VOCs § Results in “pollutant stew” dominated by ozone O3 • 3) Acid deposition (acid rain) o Coal power plants, smelters and industries use tall smokestacks to emit SOx and NOx into atmosphere o Chemicals transported by prevailing winds up to 600-‐1000 miles away o Transform into secondary pollutants (i.e., sulfuric acid, nitric acid, sulfate and nitrate salts) o Pollutants fall as wet deposition (rain, snow, fog) or dry deposition (particles) à acid deposition
o Deposition can be 10 times more acidic than “normal” precipitation • Consequences of acid deposition o Damages statues and buildings o Contributes to respiratory ailments o Leaching of toxic substances into water (harms aquatic life) o Damages forests Impacts of air pollution? • World Health Org. -‐ 2.4 million die prematurely from air pollution globally • EPA – 150,000-‐350,000 die prematurely in US from air pollution (70,000 from particulate matter) o Millions suffer from asthma and respiratory ailments o 125,000 get cancer yearly from breathing diesel fumes
• Worst air pollution in the world? o Beijing o New Delhi o Santiago o Mexico City o Cairo •
o Calcutta Reducing air pollution in U.S. • Regulations o Clean Air Act (1970) – passed uniform, national standards measured in 247 “air sheds” covering six major “criteria” pollutants.
o National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)-‐ Criteria pollutants should “not exceed uniform levels at any outside point to which the public has access”. Set levels to “protect public health” with an “adequate margin of safety”.
• States must implement NAAQS standards that will result in “attainment” and “non-‐attainment” for each criteria pollutant • If non-‐attainment – implement “available control technologies” but difficult to enforce compliance • CAA also regulates stationary sources (incinerators, power plants, industrial sites) and non-‐stationary sources (automobiles through CAFÉ standards)
• How should we judge success or failure of air quality standards?
What about the Carlisle Area? • What criteria (NAAQS) pollutants do you think we should be concerned about in Carlisle? • What are the sources?
Reducing air pollution • Technology o Scrubbers and precipitators to reduce pollution
• Emissions trading and “offsets” o Set cap on emissions -‐-‐ cap and trade o Offset new sources of pollution • How do we measure pollutants? o Typically parts per million (volume) or mg/kg or ug/m³(weight) – problem with this? § ignores particulate size (although improvements)
§ ignores chemical make-‐up (toxicity varies) § ignores bioaccumulation (absorption into body) § ignores synergism (reactions with other chemicals) • What factors influence frequency and intensity of photochemical smog? o More common in sunny, dry and warm climates o More common in areas with more cars, energy consumption & industry
o More common in areas with hills, mountains, big buildings o More common in areas prone to thermal inversions
• CLIMATE CHANGE POWERPOINT?
CLIMATE CHANGE
Symptoms • What are the symptoms of climate change? o What do scientists observe?
o Who are the scientists? How do we know what is credible? • What is causing the observed symptoms (“greenhouse effect”)? o Who is causing climate change?
Diagnosis • Climate has warmed and most of the warming since mid-‐20th century is “very likely” due to GHGs from human activities.
o Very likely means there’s only a 1 in 10 chance that GHGs are not responsible for most of the warming o GHGs are changing the climate in other ways too. • This is the conclusion of o Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change o US National Academy of Sciences o Science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia and United Kingdom • Prognosis: GHG emissions and concentrations will grow for decades unless the patient takes preventative action o rising temperatures § more extreme weather § frequency of excessive heat o more exposure to air pollution o greater risk of hunger o higher storm surges and costal flooding Who’s at Risk? • People at risk include • Poor, marginalized people • Resource based livelihoods • People in low lying coasts, small islands, flood plains • People in arid, semi-‐arid areas • Women, elderly, young, infirm • People with poor governance institutions • Least developed countries • Us • Adaptation: adjusting or adapting to the impacts of climate change to reduce risk and vulnerability • Societies have always adapted but additional measures required (IPCC 2007) • Vulnerability exacerbated by other stresses (i.e., poverty, food insecurity, poor governance, conflict, incidence of disease, etc.) • Need to increase adaptive capacity and resilience of governments, societies and people
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Mitigation: implementing measures to alter the magnitude and pace of climate change Stopping the growth in fossil energy use and in GHG emissions is not enough.
o Concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs would still rise and amplify the greenhouse effect. To stabilize human forcing of the climate takes deep cuts, 80% or more, from current emission levels. Mitigation of global GHG emissions… could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions
Climate Change as a “super wicked problem” (Levin) • “Time is not costless” – longer to address problem; harder it will be to do so • Those in best position to address problem are not only those that caused it but also those with least immediate incentive to act within necessary shorter time frame • “No central authority” -‐-‐ absence of institutional framework that can address climate problem’s spatial and temporal scope • “Hyperbolic discounting” – immediate gratification and psychology of the problem (irrational)
How do we “constraining our future selves”? (Levin) • Create and take advantage of critical junctures (increase “stickiness” interventions • Foster winning coalitions and create new interests • Pay attention to norm generation • Nurture forward-‐looking technologies
• Tinker and adapt • Train people for the right jobs (installing solar panels) • Think tipping points and thresholds (process) What does “progress” on climate change look like? • Should we emphasize “thresholds or limits” (350 ppm CO2, for example) • Process vs. Policy • What is the image of “success”?
Where does policy or social change come from? Different models… • Global governance and state policy-‐making (institutionalism) • Markets and technology (individual choice, substitution and innovation) • Social power (local praxis, collective action and fairness) What are the costs of climate change • Costs of mitigation à weaning ourselves off of GHGs – fossil fuels.
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What about just 2% of global GDP?
WASTE
What is “waste”?
• Something undesirable – by product of a useful purpose – something to be managed • Something we haven’t found a use for yet – something to be avoided • Solid waste: any unwanted or discarded material we produce (not liquid or gas).
o Industrial solid waste – by-‐product produced by mines, agriculture and industry o Municipal solid waste (MSW) – trash or garbage produced in homes and workplaces
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o 98.5% of solid waste is industrial solid waste o (76% mining, 13% agriculture, 9.5% industry)
o 1.5% Municipal solid waste • Waste management: manage waste in ways that reduce environmental harms without seriously trying to reduce the amount of waste produced.
o Burying waste o Burning waste o Shipping waste Landfills • Landfills o US: 54% of all MSW is buried in landfills o Open dumps: fields or holes where garbage is dumped or burned o “Sanitary” landfills: landfills in which MSW is spread out in thin layers, compacted and covered daily – designed to reduce leachate
• Pros o Low operating costs o Can handle large amounts of waste o Filled land can be used for other purposes o No shortage of landfill space (usually) • Cons o Noise, traffic, dust o Release of GHG (CO2 and methane) unless collected o Leaks and water contamination o Does not encourage waste reduction Incinerator
• Incinerators (“resource recovery” or “waste to energy”) o 89 located in the US where 12% of all MSW is burned • Pros o Reduces volume of trash o Produces energy o Concentrates hazardous ash for burial o Sale of energy can reduce cost • Cons o Expensive to build o Produces hazardous/toxic ash (lead, cadmium, mercury, dioxins) o Emits air pollution (dioxin, mercury, CO2) o Does not encourage waste reduction
• Waste reduction: produce much less waste and pollution and the potential wastes we do create can be reused, recycled and/or composted.
o Not “trash cans” but “resource containers” Recycling • Recycle: separate and recycle paper, glass, cans, plastic, metal and other items and buy products from recycled materials o US: 34% of MSW is recycled and 8% is composted
• So, 54% landfill (decreasing), 13% incinerator (decreasing), 25% recycled (increasing) and 8% composted (increasing) • Two types of recycling:
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Closed-‐loop recycling: recycling post-‐consumer waste into same product it came from (aluminum cans into more aluminum cans) Open-‐loop recycling: recycling waste into different product (office paper into toilet paper or plastic bottles into fleece jackets)
Reduce: consume less and live a simpler lifestyle Reuse: Rely more on items that can be used repeatedly instead of throwaway items, and buy necessary items secondhand, and borrow or rent them.
• Reducing industrial solid waste is key! o Redesign manufacturing processes and products to use less energy and material o Redesign manufacturing processes to produce less pollution and waste o Develop products that are easy to repair, reuse, remanufacture, compost and recycle o Eliminate or reduce unnecessary packaging
o User fees o Establish “cradle to grave” laws – companies must take back discarded products o Restructure urban transportation Waste Management • Integrated waste management: variety of strategies for both waste reduction and management •
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Conclusions: • Management of waste after it is formed – “end of the pipe” – 66% of waste burned or buried (although improving!) • We do not avoid or prevent the production of waste • Greenpeace: “REDUCE it, don’t PRODUCE it!” • Why do we consume so much anyway? o Psychological influence (advertising and peer pressure) o Planned obsolescence (engineering new products to replace “old” ones) o Structural imperatives (national obligation to consume)
• Solutions to reducing solid waste? o Voluntary behavior (do the right thing) o Command and control (product bans, taxes on packaging, etc.) o Market-‐based approaches (consumer behavior)
• Hazardous waste: waste that threatens human health or the environment because it is toxic (poisonous), dangerously chemically reactive, corrosive, or flammable • Who generates hazardous waste in US?
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o 66% chemical industry, 10% metal industry, 5% petroleum industry, 5% pharmaceuticals, 5% household hazardous waste o If add in DOD and Federal government – that would be 25% of total o 16,000 hazardous waste generators – 47 million tons in 2007 How do we handle hazardous waste? Transported, treated and stored
o 95% treated and stored on-‐site o 5% of most complex and toxic is transported, treated and stored in off-‐site commercial facilities Treating hazardous waste – breakdown and convert waste into less harmful chemicals o Incineration – most common treatment with same advantages and disadvantages as burning solid waste
o Other treatment technologies – expensive Storage of hazardous waste –
o Surface impoundment (“landfill for hazardous waste) – (60%) – same problems as with solid waste landfills (but more toxic) o Deep-‐well injection (release into water?)
CERCLA passed December 1980 – “Superfund Act” Purpose:
o Clean up inactive and/or abandoned hazardous waste sites
• CERCLA… o Authorizes EPA to respond to hazardous substance emergencies and clean up leaking toxic waste dumps o Establishes $1.6 billion trust fund o Institutes retroactive, strict, joint and several liability • CERCLA also… o Transfers “burden of proof” from the polluted to the polluters o Creates incentives to dispose of waste in a precautionary way and reduce amount of waste created o Has one requirement: Any person that knows of release of a reportable hazardous waste must notify EPA § Rest of CERCLA deals with clean up! Exporting Waste • Export of hazardous waste to developing countries became a thriving business (the “toxic trade”) in the 1980s and early 1990s •
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o Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, South Asia, East and SE Asia, and Eastern Europe have been recipients of waste • Why? o Tightening of environmental regulations in industrialized countries in the 1980s and NIMBY § The logic of Larry Summers § More pollution in less developed countries makes “economic sense”! Khian Sea: 14,000 tons of toxic ash • Khian Sea set sail in 1986 from Philadelphia for Haiti with the intent of disposing toxic ash o 4,000 tons left until 2000 • Failed attempt to unload the remainder of the cargo
o 27 months at sea with visits to Africa, Europe, Middle East, East Asia o Mysterious disappearance of the ash in SE Asia • Removed from the beach in Haiti in 2000, returned to Pennsylvania in 2002 • The Khian Sea was not the first case of the export of hazardous waste, however this case was prominent because of the duration and the span of the “travel” of this trash. The first cases were in Africa (like Koko, Nigeria, where toxic waste drums from Italy where stored on a farmer’s land in exchange for a small fee (Clapp 2002)). Sandoz/Ciba-‐Geigy Spill • Sandoz Chemical factory (Basel) and leak at Ciba-‐Geigy factory causes 30 tons of toxic waste to contaminate Rhine River.
• Swiss chemical companies push for “Basel Convention” in response
• Effort to fix public image Basel Convention • 1981: UNEP launches “Montevideo Program” – hazardous waste disposal lacks international law to govern the transport, management and disposal globally • 1987: Greenpeace launches global “Campaign Against the Hazardous Waste Trade” • Greenpeace research finds “waste traders” exported 163 million tons of waste by 1986 • Greenpeace saw proliferation of international trade in hazardous waste as new trend as companies avoid waste prevention at source • 1987: UNEP’s “Cairo Guidelines” sets mandate for global convention to control transboundary movements of hazardous waste • 1987: Poisoning of Koko Beach, Nigeria by Italian firm – 8,000 drums of hazardous waste o Nigeria recalls ambassador; massive protests in Italy • “Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Waste and their Disposal” is submitted for signature July 1989
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Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Waste and their Disposal • Key principles: o Right to prohibit the import of hazardous wastes § State of import must consent in writing to the specific import of such wastes o Control transboundary movements of hazardous waste through greater transparency, monitoring and implementation of national legislation § In particular between OECD and non-‐OECD countries o Hazardous wastes should be dealt with as close to where they are produced as possible § Reduction in the movement of hazardous waste • Key principles (cont’d): o “Environmentally sound management” § Improvement of capabilities in managing and minimizing hazardous waste § Utilization of “integrated life-‐cycles approach” • Controls in the generation of a hazardous waste to its storage, transport, treatment, reuse, recycling, recovery and final disposal o Monitoring and implementation § Measures to prevent and punish conduct of illegal traffic • National reporting, arbitral tribunal o Hazardous wastes identified as those that are: § Toxic, poisonous, explosive, corrosive, flammable, ecotoxic, infectious • Two key “gaps” or controversies emerge with respect to Basel Convention?
o 1) No import ban from developed to developing countries § Leads to regional waste trade agreements and national bans • Bamako Convention (1991); Waigani Convention (1995); Izmir Protocol (1996) • By 1992: 88 countries ban import of hazardous waste o 2) Waste exporters stop exporting waste for “disposal” and instead export toxic waste for “recycling” and “recovery” § Reduction in international trade of toxic waste
§ Seen as way to by-‐pass Basel Convention • 1992: US company ships toxic waste to Bangladesh labeled as “fertilizer” –
o Bangladeshi government purchases this “fertilizer” that is contaminated with lead and cadmium o “Fertilizer” sold and spread on farms throughout the country
Basel Ban Amendment • In March 1994, the 69 ratifiers of the Convention agree to an immediate ban on the export of hazardous waste from OECDà non-‐OECD countries o Incorporated into text of Basel Convention as Amendment
Unique coalition of developed and developing states and environmental NGOs involved in passing Ban Amendment • Strong opposition from US, Canada, UK, Australia, Japan • December 1997 the parties also agree to a ban on the export of wastes intended for “recovery & recycling” • Ban Amendment hailed as a “victory for the environment and justice” by Greenpeace • Requires ratification by 62 countries that have ratified Basel Convention to come into force Opposition perspective on the Ban Amendment • Ban Amendment won’t: o Solve the small remaining number of cases of illegal traffic in hazardous waste o Create waste treatment and recycling capacity of developing countries • Ban Amendment already: o Permits country the right to deny import of hazardous wastes o Covers electronic sectors’ hazardous waste § Certain types of hazardous batteries, mercury switches, glass from cathode rays
• Export ban denies imported secondary raw materials that can help development o Contests the idea that this is “waste” • Export ban inconsistent with trade regimes • Trade between non-‐OECD countries deserves attention
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RISK AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
Risk • What is risk?
o Risk = probability of particular outcome happening X consequence of that outcome • EX: how risky are air and auto travel, in terms of an accident? • Auto travel o .01 probability of accident o avg. consequence 3 (on a 10-‐point scale)
• Air travel o .0001 probability of accident o avg. consequence = 10 • Risk assessment: process of using statistical methods to estimate how much harm a particular hazard can cause to human health o 1.) identify the hazard or potential hazard (what is the hazard?) o 2.) establish probability of an accident (how likely is the event?) o 3.) determine the consequences of an accident (what is likely damage?)
• What are elements of risk that we have talked about in class so far?
Chemical Hazards • Toxic chemicals: substances that cause permanent or temporary harm or death to humans and animals o EPA’s top 5 “most toxic”: arsenic, lead, mercury, vinyl chloride, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) o Subject to environmental regulation • Types of toxic agents: o Carcinogen: chemicals that cause or promote cancer o Mutagens: chemicals that cause mutation or DNA changes à lead to disorders and/or cancer o Terotogens: chemicals that cause harm or birth defects to fetus or embryo Determining health effects of chemical? • Exposure assessment:
o Dose: amount of a harmful chemical that a person (or animal) has inhaled, ingested or absorbed through the skin. Level of exposure. o Exposure time (frequency & timing) and exposure route (inhale, dietary intake, skin contact) o Effects of exposure can vary with age, genetic make-‐up, bodies ability to detoxify and other factors… • Effects assessment: o Response: damage to health resulting from exposure § Acute response: immediate or rapid harmful effects from exposure § Chronic response: permanent or long-‐lasting effects from exposure
• Risk characterization: assess probability of harm to human health based on exposure and effects • Dose-‐response curves: change in organism caused by different levels of exposure
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Dose-‐response curves o Assumes linear cause and effect relationship between dose and effect o Testing done on animals (mice) via mega-‐dose testing à extrapolate to humans Difference between these two dose-‐response curves?
Problems with estimating health effects of a chemical?
Case study: the environment and cancer
• Is cancer made or born? Environment or genetics?
• What evidence links environment to cancer? o Cancer mapping: breast cancer 30 times higher in US than Africa; 5 times higher than Japan o Geographic migration: people tend to develop cancer profile of adopted country o Workplace evidence: people from same factories/mines get similar cancers o Wildlife exposed to certain environments get similar cancers • What are the major causes of cancer? o Peto and Doll (1980) § 30% smoking § 35% diet § 20% genetics § 5% virus can induce § 2-‐5% due to environmental factors** o Ames and Gold (1997) § 1/3 smoking (90% of all lung cancer) § Dietary imbalances: lack sufficient fruits and veggies (25% of population eating fewest of these items twice as likely to get cancer than 25% eating most) § Chronic infections and inflammation § Background damage to DNA (accumulates with age) •
Hormones -‐ partly induced by lifestyle (alcohol, contraceptives, etc) § Least important: occupation, sun exposure, pollution (air, water, toxics)
• Conventional wisdom is that one’s lifestyle is the major cause of cancer • Want to avoid cancer? Eat less red meat, lower on food chain, do not smoke, avoid veggies with natural carcinogens • Is there anything wrong with Ames and Gold’s compartmentalization of the causes of cancer?
• Is diet independent of the “environment”? o Why is it so hard to pinpoint cause of cancer to environmental pollution (chemicals, etc) o Many interrelated factors (synergisms) o Exposure to many different chemicals o Latency period (timing of exposure) o Lack of data (why?) o Human testing almost impossible Case study: Endocrine disruptors • Endocrine disruption: certain chemicals linked with known carcinogens that alter or disturb hormones or endocrine system
• Endocrine disruptors “trick (“xeno” or false endocrines) body into believing they are supposed to play a role in bodies functions” -‐ “sabotage normal bodily functions” (Krimsky 2001) • Disruptors mimic or obstruct role of natural hormones
• No single mechanism or pattern to interference or disruption • Impacts on humans:
o Sperm count declines, cancer incidence (breast, testicular and prostate), neurological disorders o Estrogens known to activate growth of certain classes of cancer cells o Linked to organochlorines that function as xeno-‐endocrines § Bisphenol (BPA) • Endocrine disruptors challenge conventional notion that “the dose makes the poison” o Linear or monolithic dose-‐response curve? o Is dose as important as the timing of the dose? §
Endocrine disruptors challenge conventional notion that toxic chemicals destroy cells and organs (like cancer is often perceived) o May at high doses be lethal but at lower doses can sabotage important and normal functions o EX: can damage computer by smashing it OR releasing virus that fools the computer • Endocrine disruptors challenge convention notion that cancer is the most sensitive indicator of potential harm to humans and environment o Effects of endocrine disruption can occur at ppb (levels already in the environment) rather than ppm with cancer o Will this help set new human exposure standards? • The appeal of risk assessment o Attempts to be systematic and knowledge-‐based rather than piecemeal, emotional or political
(rationalized on “sound science”) o Allows us to COMPARE risks (in theory) § (cannot deal with all risks given limited resources – so identify and address the biggest ones) Problems with risk assessment?
• 1) Risk is often hard to assess – are we capable of doing this?
• 2) Do we have enough information?
o 80,000 plus synthetic chemicals -‐ only couple dozen have human profiles o Lack data on 93% of all high production chemicals (HPV) produced or imported into US
§ Quantities of 1,000,000 lbs. or more § 2,200 different chemicals • 3) Assessing risk fraught with uncertainty o Can we define a “safe level of exposure” or threshold?
o Are some poisons damaging in any amount?
• Can cumulative risk be quantified or assessed by adding up assessments of individual chemicals?
o May find safe levels for each but ignore synergism o Difficult to consider multiple causality or model two chemicals at the same time • 4.) Risk to what?
o Human health? Economic well-‐being? Ecological damage?
o Not only hard to measure and lack information but hard to difficult to compare these kinds of risks.
o How many estimated deaths avoided equal a billion dollars loss of profits to a regulated industry? § Should we make these judgments? • 5) Risk to whom?
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o How is the risk distributed?
o Discrimination against certain groups -‐ when you disaggregate risk what do you get?
o Are all 300 “anticipated deaths” for the US distributed equally across population?
o Is the standard the greatest good for the greatest number? (i.e. utilitarianism) o Is the standard to protect the most vulnerable first?
o Or another standard?
6) Does it matter if people choose risk or have it thrust upon them?
o Smoking vs. second hand (or even third-‐hand smoke) o Is the issue risk or the imposition of risk that has not been freely chosen? o What should the regulatory standard be? § “No risk” rule – zero tolerance policy • Risk-‐free or banned • Food additives at any dose even ppb?
o “Threshold” rule – differentiate acceptable from unacceptable risk o “Margin of safety” rule – establish best guess on risk then establish buffer just in case Given uncertainty – where should the burden of proof lie?
o Proof of harm principle (acting when – and only when, we are certain there’s a problem) – burden on those claiming harm o Precautionary principle (acting under scientific uncertainty – might be a problem) – burden on those claiming no harm
ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT •
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Sustainablity:
o Ability of natural systems and human cultural systems and economies to survive and adapt to changing environmental conditions o Ability to meet current and future needs of all people in a just and equitable manner without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their basic needs Environmental justice represented the coming together of many social movement “streams” -‐-‐ civil rights, anti-‐toxics, cultural survival, labor movement, peace, anti-‐nuclear, environmental, etc. Social justice: principles that should govern the basic structure of a society, focusing on the distribution of rights, opportunities and resources among human beings (Carter 2008) Environmental justice: situation in which “no people, regardless of race, national origin, or income, are forced to shoulder an unequal [environmental] burden and all are treated fairly with regard to enforcement of environmental regulations” (EPA 1994) o Can refer to “domination, exploitation and injustices of many kinds” (Montague 2002)
**Bullards 5 principals** • The Right to Protection – “the right to be protected from environmental degradation” • The Prevention of Harm -‐-‐ “prevention, the elimination of the threat before harm occurs, should be the preferred strategy of governments” • Shift the Burden of Proof – “burden of proof must be shifted to the polluters who do harm, discriminate or do not give equal protection to minorities and other overburdened classes.” • Obviate Proof of Intent – laws should allow for “disparate impact and statistical weight as opposed to intent to infer discrimination” • Redress Inequities – “disproportionate impacts must be redressed by targeting action and resources”
*** QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER ***
• What is the central “climate change” issue and why?
• What policy, activity or initiative would help move us in the “right direction”? Does it fall under adaptation or mitigation
• What are the temporal and spatial dimensions of your policy, activity or initiative? (read: impact at what level) • Do you think BIG or begin small? Why?
• How does your policy, activity or initiative help to “constrain our future selves? • What model of policy or social change do you borrow from the most? Which do you feel has the best chance of “success” • How do we measure “success” in addressing climate change? (something to ask Bill McKibben?)
ENERGY
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Energy is the capacity to do work (Work = Force x Distance) or to move matter.
Different forms of energy: o Chemical energy o Radiant energy o Solar energy o Thermal energy o Mechanical energy o Nuclear energy
o Electrical energy Kinetic energy (moving energy) o Associated with motion (wind, water, electricity) o Associated with heat
o Electromagnetic radiation Potential energy (stored energy) o Can be changed to kinetic energy Energy is transformed or changed often
o First Law of Thermodynamics: whenever energy is converted from one form to another in a physical or chemical change, no energy is created or destroyed. We cannot get more energy out of a change than we put into it!
Everything we do requires energy! ~92% of world’s commercial energy comes from non-‐renewable resources!
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Fossil fuels à coal, oil and natural gas Remnants of plants and organisms formed over millennia
Coal • Coal is relatively abundant:
• US supplies could last 200-‐250 years
• Global supplies could last 250-‐1000 years
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Coal produces 40% of world’s electricity and is used for heavy industry (steel and iron) Coal-‐burning power plant
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Two types of coal mining: Surface and sub-‐surface (underground) Surface mining accounts for 60% of all coal mines in US
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Mountain-‐top mining
• Coal is highly flammable near surface and impossible to extinguish
Environmental impacts of burning coal? • Climate change: coal combustion is highest emitter of carbon dioxide – a greenhouse gas. o +25% of all global emissions and +44% of all US emissions o One 500 MW power plant à 3 million tons /year CO2 o Twice the CO2 as natural gas o “Factories of death” – James Hansen • Air pollution: release of particulate matter, toxic heavy metals (i.e. mercury) and sulfur and nitrogen oxides o Acid deposition or “acid rain” o Smog o Human health (~20,000 premature deaths annually –NAS report
• Toxic coal ash: left behind after combustion and full of heavy metals (arsenic, mercury, lead, cadmium) o Stored underground or in slurry ponds that can leach into surface and/or ground water
o Coal ash spill near Knoxville, TN in 2008 – “Largest environmental spill of its kind.” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/27/us/27sludge.html External damage of coal (non-‐climate related) = $62 billion or 3.2 cents per kilo-‐watt hour (NAS report 2009) • Coal consumption is increasing globally (decreasing in US)! • Coal is relatively abundant and cheap!
• Vital for economies and economic development!
• Severe environmental and human health problems! o “The Big Climate Question” What about “clean coal”? • Petroleum or Crude Oil • Petroleum or crude oil: hundreds of connected hydro-‐carbons that contain trace amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and oxygen (impurities) – black, oily substance as it comes out of ground!
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Oil generally found together in geologic formations Oil is refined for different uses
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Major use of oil is as fuel
Who has the petroleum / oil? • Oil is unevenly distributed globally
• Proven oil reserves: identified deposits from which crude oil can be extracted profitably at current prices with current technology • Peak production: pressure in well drops and production of oil or natural gas declines
• Global Peak Oil: point at which global oil production has reached its maximum. • A global problem or “groundless” debate about Peak Oil? Peak Oil • If global oil consumption remains constant (2o1o levels) proven reserves will lasts between 46 and 85 years • “All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.”
-‐-‐William Cummings of Exxon-‐Mobil _______________ • Peak oil theories are “increasingly groundless” because oil production will increase substantially in years to come.
-‐-‐ Bob Dudley BP
• What factors determine how long petroleum / oil reserves will last? • We do not know how many additional oil wells will be found
About 80% of all production wells were discovered before 1973 and most have started to decline • 9 out of 21 largest oil fields are in decline • We do not know what technological breakthroughs will occur • Will new technologies allow us to squeeze more out of existing oil fields or exploit new ones?
• Oil’s “Final Frontier”? What factors determine how long oil reserves will last? • We do not know the rate of future oil consumption o The world now consumes 85 million barrels of oil per day or about 40,000 gallons per second o Oil consumption has been growing at 2.3% per year Natural Gas • Conventional natural gas
o Found near oil and made up of mixture of gases
o Mostly methane with smaller amounts of butane, propane and ethane • Non-‐conventional natural gas o Shale gas, tight gas, coal bed methane, methane hydrates • Natural gas processing •
Natural Gas -‐ Prospects • Long-‐term prospects better than oil reserves but how long natural gas reserves last depends on host of factors
What are the environmental impacts of petroleum/oil and natural gas? • Climate change: carbon dioxide emissions are a direct result of the burning oil and natural gas (but also coal).
• Air pollution: burning oil releases significant amount of particulate matter, and sulfur and nitrogen oxides o Results in acid deposition and smog, which have serious ecological and human health impacts
o Natural gas contains little sulfur, less CO2 and no particulate matter when compared to oil and coal. o Hidden external costs of fossil fuels – (20,000 people die prematurely every year) • Water pollution:
o Hydrologic fracturing technique may affect surface and groundwater
• Problems extracting and transporting oil and natural gas Given our Challenges what can/should we do?
• 1. Look aggressively for and secure more oil and natural gas? • 2. Use fewer fossil fuels – conservation and efficiency? • 3. Develop alternative energy sources?
• 4. All of the above?
Let’s look for more petroleum and/or natural gas… • Develop Canada’s tar sands o Tar sands: mixtures of clay, sand, water and organic bitumen – a tar like heavy oil with high sulfur content
o Canada has 75% of world’s supply
o May contain 300 billion barrels! • One problem – exploiting tar sands is environmentally destructive • Develop the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska • Is drilling in ANWR worth it?
• What does the US population think?
o Varies with gas prices (42% favored drilling in Feb 2008 & 50% in June 2008) • What do Alaskan’s think? o Alaskans ~72% support oil and gas development
• More shale gas development… Nuclear Energy • Energy released through nuclear fission • A brief history of nuclear energy • Radioactive decay o As radioactive elements emit radiation (rays of invisible energy) – its nucleus changes into a more stable element o EX: radioactive nucleus of U-‐235 decays over time into Pb-‐207 o Each radioactive element has its own rate of decay • Half-‐life: time required for one-‐half of the total amount of radioactive substance to change into a different material • Nuclear energy involved changes to the nuclei of atoms • Nuclear fuel cycle: process involved in producing fuel used in nuclear reactors and disposing of the radioactive wastes
• Uranium ore -‐-‐ a mineral – is used in conventional nuclear power plants • Non-‐renewable resource found in limited quantities o Australia 20% o Kazakhstan 18% o US 10%
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o Canada 10% o South Africa 10% Uranium enrichment: ore is refined to increase concentration of U-‐235 and processed into small pellets
Nuclear reactor: device that initiates and maintains controlled nuclear fission chain reaction to produce electricity Pellets that are packed into fuel rod and grouped into fuel assemblies 200 rods per assembly and 150-‐200 assemblies per reactor Final steps of fuel cycle:
o Radioactive “spent” fuel must be safely stored for thousands of years
o Nuclear plants must be retired after life span (15-‐60 years) – radioactive materials must be stored or disposed of Nuclear power today:
US: 104 nuclear reactors in 31 states o Accounts for 8-‐9% of overall energy and 19-‐20% of all electricity • France: 59 reactors – 77% of all electricity Controversies over nuclear energy
1.) Costs: Why so expensive?
o Up front costs high – so delays very expensive o Technology is complex
o Decommissioning expensive o Regulatory compliance expensive • Nuclear power plants require government $$$ – would not exist without government support! •
2.) Weapons proliferation:
o Enrichment of reactor-‐grade uranium can be weapons grade o Reprocessing more efficient but plutonium useful for nuclear weapons o Disposal pools and dry casks susceptible to attack 3.) Safety: once “glamorous reactors” now dreaded • Three-‐Mile Island (1979 4.) Storage of radioactive wastes o Need to store and secure spent nuclear fuel for 10,000 to 250,000 years!
o Currently have 350,000 metric tons (800 million lbs.) of nuclear waste stored at 65 nuclear power plants
Case Timeline I • -‐-‐1974: India explodes a “peaceful nuclear device” • -‐-‐1982: Nuclear Waste Policy Act -‐-‐ “permanent solution” to the waste disposal problem • -‐-‐1985: 3 finalist candidate sites: WA, TX, NV • -‐-‐1987: Congress à DOE shall only consider Yucca Mountain • -‐-‐2004: Federal Court à must consider safety 1 million years from now (not 10,000) Case Timeline II • -‐-‐2004: First time Senate defunds Yucca
• -‐-‐2005: Studies not consistent on feasibility of site
• 2005-‐2007: Political fights over Yucca
• -‐-‐2008: Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepts DOE’s application for site construction • -‐-‐2009: Obama administration drops Yucca Mountain from federal budget, says “no longer a viable option” • Yucca Mountain – a looming controversy and no consensus
o Was this a good site after all? o Transportation risk o After 38 years, we would need another Yucca Mountain o Cost -‐-‐ < $10 billion so far
• Nuclear power split the environmental movement. Why?
• What are other options exist for generating electricity?
Solar Energy • Benefits of solar?
o No pollution or greenhouse gases during operation – low environmental impact
o No moving parts, safe and quiet
o Compared to other energy options -‐-‐ fast to install
• Solar Energy Generating Systems, CA
-‐-‐largest thermal solar power plant in world
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"The U.S. is on pace to install as much solar power this year as it did in this century's entire first decade: at least 2,500 megawatts, the equivalent of more than two nuclear-‐power plants." Are there problems with solar?
o Costs
o Efficiency o Need access to sun o Land use impacts o Environmental costs in production and transportation
Costs • Efficiency of electricity generation
Land use impacts o “With today's commercial systems, the solar energy resource in a 100-‐ by-‐100-‐mile area of Nevada could supply the United States with all of its electricity. If these systems were distributed to the 50 states, the land required from each state would be an area of about 17 by 17 miles. This area is available now from parking lots, rooftops, and vacant land. In fact, 90% of America's current electricity needs could be supplied with solar electric systems built on the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites in our nation's cities.” Wind Energy • What are the advantages of wind energy? o No pollution or greenhouse gas emissions during operation o Relatively efficient o Abundant & widely distributed o Moderate capital costs to install •
Any drawbacks?
o Location
o Aesthetics and noise o Bird mortality • “The best wind farms in the world already produce power as economically as coal, gas and nuclear generators; the average wind farm will be fully competitive by 2016.”
Can We Increase Energy Efficiency • Energy efficiency – measure of how much work we can get from each unit of energy we use • Why do we waste electricity?
o Energy is and has been artificially cheap! o Few incentives to conserve electricity or create new technologies!
o Habits die hard!
• what about transportation? • 2/3 of all petroleum oil consumption • What about increasing fuel efficiency of cars and trucks?
• What about more reliance on biofuels? o Biodiesel: biofuel produced from vegetable oils (i.e., fats from restaurants) or produced from soybeans, rapeseeds, sunflowers & oil palms. o Ethanol: biofuel made from plants such as sugarcane, corn and switch-‐ grass. § Convert starch in plant material to simply sugars that are processed into ethanol Advantages of Biofuels (over oil) • Oil is concentrated in small number of countries -‐-‐ biofuels can be grown almost anywhere • If crops not used faster than can be replenished à no net increase in CO2 emissions – [UNLESS existing forests or grasslands are cleared to raise the new crops] • Biofuels are available, easy to store and transport in existing fuel networks (bridge technology)! • Can reduce CO2 emissions by 70% (if forests are not cleared!) Disadvantages? • Decrease biodiversity through land clearing • Increase erosion • Displace farmers • Raise food prices Transitioning to a “soft energy path”? • Moving from reliance on non-‐renewable fossil fuels and nuclear energy to improved energy efficiency and a mix of renewable resources • How do we make the shift to more sustainable energy path? So what is the future? •
“WE will need fossil fuels like oil and gas for the foreseeable future. So there’s really little choice (sigh). We have to press ahead with fracking for natural gas. We must approve the Keystone XL pipeline to get Canadian oil.” (New York Times 3/23/2013) • “It’s absolutely not true that we need natural gas, coal or oil — we think it’s a myth,… You could power America with renewables from a technical and economic standpoint. The biggest obstacles are social and political — what you need is the will to do it.”
Water Energy Food Nexus •
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Food, water and energy systems are all deeply inter-‐connected and dependent on each other A disturbance in one system will alter the other systems Sustainability will require modifications in all three
AIR AND AIR POLLUTION What are the challenges of air pollution? o No “out of sight, out of mind” -‐ air (and polluted air) is hard to avoid o Air linked to other forms of pollution o Not a new concern! The Atmosphere • Troposphere and stratosphere à
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Troposphere: air mass found closest to the earth’s surface – the air we breathe o Extends 5-‐11 miles upwards o ¾ of mass of air o 99% of volume of air we breathe is two gases – nitrogen and oxygen o 1% trace gases – water vapor, argon, CO2, methane (CH4), ozone (O3) (also soot and dust) o Air currents, winds and concentrations of gases play major role in weather and climate!
• Stratosphere o Extends 11-‐30 miles upwards o Similar in composition to troposphere BUT contains 1/1000 of water vapor and much more ozone (O3) • Stratospheric ozone makes up “ozone layer” o Located in lower part of stratosphere and blocks 95% of sun’s ultraviolet (UV) radiation from reaching earth’s surface o Ozone layer vital for life on earth!
Loss of the Ozone layer • 1980s: found that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) depleting ozone layer o CFCs: “dream chemicals” used as coolant in air conditioners & fridges; propellant for aerosol spray cans; cleaners • Depletion of ozone layer damaging to wildlife and humans as more UV radiation reaches earth – more eye cataracts, sunburns, skin cancer • International treaty to ban CFCs – Montreal Protocol (1987)
• Air pollution: presence of chemicals in the atmosphere in concentrations high enough to harm organisms, ecosystems and human-‐made materials o Natural sources: dust, wildfires, volcanic eruptions, plants o Human sources: burning of fossil fuels for power and industrial purposes (stationary) and cars (mobile sources) o Primary pollutants: emitted directly into troposphere from source (CO, HCs, SO2, NO2) o Secondary pollutants: reaction with primary pollutants (or component of air) to create a new pollutant (SO3, NO3, H2SO4, O3) Six Critical Air Pollutants • Carbon oxides • Nitrogen oxides and nitric acid • Sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid • Particulate matter • Ozone • Volatile organic compounds 1) Carbon Oxides • Carbon monoxide (CO) • Colorless and odorless • Sources: combustion of carbon containing fuels – 50% from vehicle exhaust • Impacts: “driver fatigue”, heart disease, respiratory ailments •
Levels fluctuate daily in urban areas – why?
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
o Colorless and odorless o 93% of CO2 naturally-‐occurring – 7% from human activity (burning of fossil fuels, clearing forest/grasslands) o Only recently has CO2 been considered a pollutant as growing levels threaten the earth’s climate 2) Nitrogen oxides and nitric acid • NO (nitric oxide) – colorless gas -‐-‐ forms during combustion o Sources: 89% natural / 11% human • NO reacts with oxygen to form nitrogen dioxide (NO2) – reddish-‐brown gas • NO and NO2 known as nitrogen oxides (NOx) – play a role in formation of photochemical smog • NOx impacts respiratory functions (asthma and bronchitis) • Some NO2 reacts with water vapor to form nitric acid (HNO3) à component of acid deposition • N2O (nitrous oxide) is a GHG emitted from fertilizers and animal waste 3) Sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid • Sulfur dioxide – colorless and strong odor o Sources: 30% natural sources / 70% human (coal-‐fired power and industrial plants; smelting, oil refining) o Impacts: visibility, damage to metals/paints; respiratory problems • SO2 converted into droplets of sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and particles of sulfate – return to earth as acid deposition 4) Particulates • “Particulate matter” (PM) – solid particles or liquid droplets small and light enough to remain suspended in air • PM 10 and PM 2.5 (microns) o Sources: 60% natural sources and 40% human (coal burning and industrial plants, motor vehicles) – diesel engines! o Impacts: Lung damage, respiratory issues, reproductive problems, cancer
§ Children very susceptible – why?
5) Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) • Organic compounds (hydrocarbons) in atmosphere • Methane o Sources: natural (plants, wetlands) and human (rice paddies, landfills, oil wells, burping cows) OR in
• Benzene o Sources: industrial processes, cleansers, fossil fuels • Impacts: GHG emissions (methane), reproductive & respiratory ailments, cancer (benzene) 6) Ozone • Ozone (O3)
o Colorless and highly reactive •
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Created by chemical reactions b/t nitrogen oxides and VOCs in presence of sunlight • Major ingredient in photochemical smog • Ozone causes significant respiratory problems and heart disease
Key air pollution issues
• 1) Industrial smog o Caused by burning of large amounts of coal – mix of sulfur dioxide, sulfuric acid and particulate matter o Developed countries problem has been reduced b/c technologies and height of smokestacks
o Major problem in developing world (China, India, etc) • 2) Photochemical smog o Mixture of primary and secondary pollutants formed under influence of UV radiation § Commuter traffic releases large amounts of NO and VOCs § NO converted to NO2 à NO2 reacts with UV radiation and VOCs § Results in “pollutant stew” dominated by ozone O3 • 3) Acid deposition (acid rain) o Coal power plants, smelters and industries use tall smokestacks to emit SOx and NOx into atmosphere o Chemicals transported by prevailing winds up to 600-‐1000 miles away o Transform into secondary pollutants (i.e., sulfuric acid, nitric acid, sulfate and nitrate salts) o Pollutants fall as wet deposition (rain, snow, fog) or dry deposition (particles) à acid deposition
o Deposition can be 10 times more acidic than “normal” precipitation • Consequences of acid deposition o Damages statues and buildings o Contributes to respiratory ailments o Leaching of toxic substances into water (harms aquatic life) o Damages forests Impacts of air pollution? • World Health Org. -‐ 2.4 million die prematurely from air pollution globally • EPA – 150,000-‐350,000 die prematurely in US from air pollution (70,000 from particulate matter) o Millions suffer from asthma and respiratory ailments o 125,000 get cancer yearly from breathing diesel fumes
• Worst air pollution in the world? o Beijing o New Delhi o Santiago o Mexico City o Cairo •
o Calcutta Reducing air pollution in U.S. • Regulations o Clean Air Act (1970) – passed uniform, national standards measured in 247 “air sheds” covering six major “criteria” pollutants.
o National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)-‐ Criteria pollutants should “not exceed uniform levels at any outside point to which the public has access”. Set levels to “protect public health” with an “adequate margin of safety”.
• States must implement NAAQS standards that will result in “attainment” and “non-‐attainment” for each criteria pollutant • If non-‐attainment – implement “available control technologies” but difficult to enforce compliance • CAA also regulates stationary sources (incinerators, power plants, industrial sites) and non-‐stationary sources (automobiles through CAFÉ standards)
• How should we judge success or failure of air quality standards?
What about the Carlisle Area? • What criteria (NAAQS) pollutants do you think we should be concerned about in Carlisle? • What are the sources?
Reducing air pollution • Technology o Scrubbers and precipitators to reduce pollution
• Emissions trading and “offsets” o Set cap on emissions -‐-‐ cap and trade o Offset new sources of pollution • How do we measure pollutants? o Typically parts per million (volume) or mg/kg or ug/m³(weight) – problem with this? § ignores particulate size (although improvements)
§ ignores chemical make-‐up (toxicity varies) § ignores bioaccumulation (absorption into body) § ignores synergism (reactions with other chemicals) • What factors influence frequency and intensity of photochemical smog? o More common in sunny, dry and warm climates o More common in areas with more cars, energy consumption & industry
o More common in areas with hills, mountains, big buildings o More common in areas prone to thermal inversions
• CLIMATE CHANGE POWERPOINT?
CLIMATE CHANGE
Symptoms • What are the symptoms of climate change? o What do scientists observe?
o Who are the scientists? How do we know what is credible? • What is causing the observed symptoms (“greenhouse effect”)? o Who is causing climate change?
Diagnosis • Climate has warmed and most of the warming since mid-‐20th century is “very likely” due to GHGs from human activities.
o Very likely means there’s only a 1 in 10 chance that GHGs are not responsible for most of the warming o GHGs are changing the climate in other ways too. • This is the conclusion of o Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change o US National Academy of Sciences o Science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia and United Kingdom • Prognosis: GHG emissions and concentrations will grow for decades unless the patient takes preventative action o rising temperatures § more extreme weather § frequency of excessive heat o more exposure to air pollution o greater risk of hunger o higher storm surges and costal flooding Who’s at Risk? • People at risk include • Poor, marginalized people • Resource based livelihoods • People in low lying coasts, small islands, flood plains • People in arid, semi-‐arid areas • Women, elderly, young, infirm • People with poor governance institutions • Least developed countries • Us • Adaptation: adjusting or adapting to the impacts of climate change to reduce risk and vulnerability • Societies have always adapted but additional measures required (IPCC 2007) • Vulnerability exacerbated by other stresses (i.e., poverty, food insecurity, poor governance, conflict, incidence of disease, etc.) • Need to increase adaptive capacity and resilience of governments, societies and people
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Mitigation: implementing measures to alter the magnitude and pace of climate change Stopping the growth in fossil energy use and in GHG emissions is not enough.
o Concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs would still rise and amplify the greenhouse effect. To stabilize human forcing of the climate takes deep cuts, 80% or more, from current emission levels. Mitigation of global GHG emissions… could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions
Climate Change as a “super wicked problem” (Levin) • “Time is not costless” – longer to address problem; harder it will be to do so • Those in best position to address problem are not only those that caused it but also those with least immediate incentive to act within necessary shorter time frame • “No central authority” -‐-‐ absence of institutional framework that can address climate problem’s spatial and temporal scope • “Hyperbolic discounting” – immediate gratification and psychology of the problem (irrational)
How do we “constraining our future selves”? (Levin) • Create and take advantage of critical junctures (increase “stickiness” interventions • Foster winning coalitions and create new interests • Pay attention to norm generation • Nurture forward-‐looking technologies
• Tinker and adapt • Train people for the right jobs (installing solar panels) • Think tipping points and thresholds (process) What does “progress” on climate change look like? • Should we emphasize “thresholds or limits” (350 ppm CO2, for example) • Process vs. Policy • What is the image of “success”?
Where does policy or social change come from? Different models… • Global governance and state policy-‐making (institutionalism) • Markets and technology (individual choice, substitution and innovation) • Social power (local praxis, collective action and fairness) What are the costs of climate change • Costs of mitigation à weaning ourselves off of GHGs – fossil fuels.
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What about just 2% of global GDP?
WASTE
What is “waste”?
• Something undesirable – by product of a useful purpose – something to be managed • Something we haven’t found a use for yet – something to be avoided • Solid waste: any unwanted or discarded material we produce (not liquid or gas).
o Industrial solid waste – by-‐product produced by mines, agriculture and industry o Municipal solid waste (MSW) – trash or garbage produced in homes and workplaces
• In US:
o 98.5% of solid waste is industrial solid waste o (76% mining, 13% agriculture, 9.5% industry)
o 1.5% Municipal solid waste • Waste management: manage waste in ways that reduce environmental harms without seriously trying to reduce the amount of waste produced.
o Burying waste o Burning waste o Shipping waste Landfills • Landfills o US: 54% of all MSW is buried in landfills o Open dumps: fields or holes where garbage is dumped or burned o “Sanitary” landfills: landfills in which MSW is spread out in thin layers, compacted and covered daily – designed to reduce leachate
• Pros o Low operating costs o Can handle large amounts of waste o Filled land can be used for other purposes o No shortage of landfill space (usually) • Cons o Noise, traffic, dust o Release of GHG (CO2 and methane) unless collected o Leaks and water contamination o Does not encourage waste reduction Incinerator
• Incinerators (“resource recovery” or “waste to energy”) o 89 located in the US where 12% of all MSW is burned • Pros o Reduces volume of trash o Produces energy o Concentrates hazardous ash for burial o Sale of energy can reduce cost • Cons o Expensive to build o Produces hazardous/toxic ash (lead, cadmium, mercury, dioxins) o Emits air pollution (dioxin, mercury, CO2) o Does not encourage waste reduction
• Waste reduction: produce much less waste and pollution and the potential wastes we do create can be reused, recycled and/or composted.
o Not “trash cans” but “resource containers” Recycling • Recycle: separate and recycle paper, glass, cans, plastic, metal and other items and buy products from recycled materials o US: 34% of MSW is recycled and 8% is composted
• So, 54% landfill (decreasing), 13% incinerator (decreasing), 25% recycled (increasing) and 8% composted (increasing) • Two types of recycling:
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Closed-‐loop recycling: recycling post-‐consumer waste into same product it came from (aluminum cans into more aluminum cans) Open-‐loop recycling: recycling waste into different product (office paper into toilet paper or plastic bottles into fleece jackets)
Reduce: consume less and live a simpler lifestyle Reuse: Rely more on items that can be used repeatedly instead of throwaway items, and buy necessary items secondhand, and borrow or rent them.
• Reducing industrial solid waste is key! o Redesign manufacturing processes and products to use less energy and material o Redesign manufacturing processes to produce less pollution and waste o Develop products that are easy to repair, reuse, remanufacture, compost and recycle o Eliminate or reduce unnecessary packaging
o User fees o Establish “cradle to grave” laws – companies must take back discarded products o Restructure urban transportation Waste Management • Integrated waste management: variety of strategies for both waste reduction and management •
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Conclusions: • Management of waste after it is formed – “end of the pipe” – 66% of waste burned or buried (although improving!) • We do not avoid or prevent the production of waste • Greenpeace: “REDUCE it, don’t PRODUCE it!” • Why do we consume so much anyway? o Psychological influence (advertising and peer pressure) o Planned obsolescence (engineering new products to replace “old” ones) o Structural imperatives (national obligation to consume)
• Solutions to reducing solid waste? o Voluntary behavior (do the right thing) o Command and control (product bans, taxes on packaging, etc.) o Market-‐based approaches (consumer behavior)
• Hazardous waste: waste that threatens human health or the environment because it is toxic (poisonous), dangerously chemically reactive, corrosive, or flammable • Who generates hazardous waste in US?
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o 66% chemical industry, 10% metal industry, 5% petroleum industry, 5% pharmaceuticals, 5% household hazardous waste o If add in DOD and Federal government – that would be 25% of total o 16,000 hazardous waste generators – 47 million tons in 2007 How do we handle hazardous waste? Transported, treated and stored
o 95% treated and stored on-‐site o 5% of most complex and toxic is transported, treated and stored in off-‐site commercial facilities Treating hazardous waste – breakdown and convert waste into less harmful chemicals o Incineration – most common treatment with same advantages and disadvantages as burning solid waste
o Other treatment technologies – expensive Storage of hazardous waste –
o Surface impoundment (“landfill for hazardous waste) – (60%) – same problems as with solid waste landfills (but more toxic) o Deep-‐well injection (release into water?)
CERCLA passed December 1980 – “Superfund Act” Purpose:
o Clean up inactive and/or abandoned hazardous waste sites
• CERCLA… o Authorizes EPA to respond to hazardous substance emergencies and clean up leaking toxic waste dumps o Establishes $1.6 billion trust fund o Institutes retroactive, strict, joint and several liability • CERCLA also… o Transfers “burden of proof” from the polluted to the polluters o Creates incentives to dispose of waste in a precautionary way and reduce amount of waste created o Has one requirement: Any person that knows of release of a reportable hazardous waste must notify EPA § Rest of CERCLA deals with clean up! Exporting Waste • Export of hazardous waste to developing countries became a thriving business (the “toxic trade”) in the 1980s and early 1990s •
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o Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, South Asia, East and SE Asia, and Eastern Europe have been recipients of waste • Why? o Tightening of environmental regulations in industrialized countries in the 1980s and NIMBY § The logic of Larry Summers § More pollution in less developed countries makes “economic sense”! Khian Sea: 14,000 tons of toxic ash • Khian Sea set sail in 1986 from Philadelphia for Haiti with the intent of disposing toxic ash o 4,000 tons left until 2000 • Failed attempt to unload the remainder of the cargo
o 27 months at sea with visits to Africa, Europe, Middle East, East Asia o Mysterious disappearance of the ash in SE Asia • Removed from the beach in Haiti in 2000, returned to Pennsylvania in 2002 • The Khian Sea was not the first case of the export of hazardous waste, however this case was prominent because of the duration and the span of the “travel” of this trash. The first cases were in Africa (like Koko, Nigeria, where toxic waste drums from Italy where stored on a farmer’s land in exchange for a small fee (Clapp 2002)). Sandoz/Ciba-‐Geigy Spill • Sandoz Chemical factory (Basel) and leak at Ciba-‐Geigy factory causes 30 tons of toxic waste to contaminate Rhine River.
• Swiss chemical companies push for “Basel Convention” in response
• Effort to fix public image Basel Convention • 1981: UNEP launches “Montevideo Program” – hazardous waste disposal lacks international law to govern the transport, management and disposal globally • 1987: Greenpeace launches global “Campaign Against the Hazardous Waste Trade” • Greenpeace research finds “waste traders” exported 163 million tons of waste by 1986 • Greenpeace saw proliferation of international trade in hazardous waste as new trend as companies avoid waste prevention at source • 1987: UNEP’s “Cairo Guidelines” sets mandate for global convention to control transboundary movements of hazardous waste • 1987: Poisoning of Koko Beach, Nigeria by Italian firm – 8,000 drums of hazardous waste o Nigeria recalls ambassador; massive protests in Italy • “Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Waste and their Disposal” is submitted for signature July 1989
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Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Waste and their Disposal • Key principles: o Right to prohibit the import of hazardous wastes § State of import must consent in writing to the specific import of such wastes o Control transboundary movements of hazardous waste through greater transparency, monitoring and implementation of national legislation § In particular between OECD and non-‐OECD countries o Hazardous wastes should be dealt with as close to where they are produced as possible § Reduction in the movement of hazardous waste • Key principles (cont’d): o “Environmentally sound management” § Improvement of capabilities in managing and minimizing hazardous waste § Utilization of “integrated life-‐cycles approach” • Controls in the generation of a hazardous waste to its storage, transport, treatment, reuse, recycling, recovery and final disposal o Monitoring and implementation § Measures to prevent and punish conduct of illegal traffic • National reporting, arbitral tribunal o Hazardous wastes identified as those that are: § Toxic, poisonous, explosive, corrosive, flammable, ecotoxic, infectious • Two key “gaps” or controversies emerge with respect to Basel Convention?
o 1) No import ban from developed to developing countries § Leads to regional waste trade agreements and national bans • Bamako Convention (1991); Waigani Convention (1995); Izmir Protocol (1996) • By 1992: 88 countries ban import of hazardous waste o 2) Waste exporters stop exporting waste for “disposal” and instead export toxic waste for “recycling” and “recovery” § Reduction in international trade of toxic waste
§ Seen as way to by-‐pass Basel Convention • 1992: US company ships toxic waste to Bangladesh labeled as “fertilizer” –
o Bangladeshi government purchases this “fertilizer” that is contaminated with lead and cadmium o “Fertilizer” sold and spread on farms throughout the country
Basel Ban Amendment • In March 1994, the 69 ratifiers of the Convention agree to an immediate ban on the export of hazardous waste from OECDà non-‐OECD countries o Incorporated into text of Basel Convention as Amendment
Unique coalition of developed and developing states and environmental NGOs involved in passing Ban Amendment • Strong opposition from US, Canada, UK, Australia, Japan • December 1997 the parties also agree to a ban on the export of wastes intended for “recovery & recycling” • Ban Amendment hailed as a “victory for the environment and justice” by Greenpeace • Requires ratification by 62 countries that have ratified Basel Convention to come into force Opposition perspective on the Ban Amendment • Ban Amendment won’t: o Solve the small remaining number of cases of illegal traffic in hazardous waste o Create waste treatment and recycling capacity of developing countries • Ban Amendment already: o Permits country the right to deny import of hazardous wastes o Covers electronic sectors’ hazardous waste § Certain types of hazardous batteries, mercury switches, glass from cathode rays
• Export ban denies imported secondary raw materials that can help development o Contests the idea that this is “waste” • Export ban inconsistent with trade regimes • Trade between non-‐OECD countries deserves attention
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RISK AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
Risk • What is risk?
o Risk = probability of particular outcome happening X consequence of that outcome • EX: how risky are air and auto travel, in terms of an accident? • Auto travel o .01 probability of accident o avg. consequence 3 (on a 10-‐point scale)
• Air travel o .0001 probability of accident o avg. consequence = 10 • Risk assessment: process of using statistical methods to estimate how much harm a particular hazard can cause to human health o 1.) identify the hazard or potential hazard (what is the hazard?) o 2.) establish probability of an accident (how likely is the event?) o 3.) determine the consequences of an accident (what is likely damage?)
• What are elements of risk that we have talked about in class so far?
Chemical Hazards • Toxic chemicals: substances that cause permanent or temporary harm or death to humans and animals o EPA’s top 5 “most toxic”: arsenic, lead, mercury, vinyl chloride, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) o Subject to environmental regulation • Types of toxic agents: o Carcinogen: chemicals that cause or promote cancer o Mutagens: chemicals that cause mutation or DNA changes à lead to disorders and/or cancer o Terotogens: chemicals that cause harm or birth defects to fetus or embryo Determining health effects of chemical? • Exposure assessment:
o Dose: amount of a harmful chemical that a person (or animal) has inhaled, ingested or absorbed through the skin. Level of exposure. o Exposure time (frequency & timing) and exposure route (inhale, dietary intake, skin contact) o Effects of exposure can vary with age, genetic make-‐up, bodies ability to detoxify and other factors… • Effects assessment: o Response: damage to health resulting from exposure § Acute response: immediate or rapid harmful effects from exposure § Chronic response: permanent or long-‐lasting effects from exposure
• Risk characterization: assess probability of harm to human health based on exposure and effects • Dose-‐response curves: change in organism caused by different levels of exposure
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Dose-‐response curves o Assumes linear cause and effect relationship between dose and effect o Testing done on animals (mice) via mega-‐dose testing à extrapolate to humans Difference between these two dose-‐response curves?
Problems with estimating health effects of a chemical?
Case study: the environment and cancer
• Is cancer made or born? Environment or genetics?
• What evidence links environment to cancer? o Cancer mapping: breast cancer 30 times higher in US than Africa; 5 times higher than Japan o Geographic migration: people tend to develop cancer profile of adopted country o Workplace evidence: people from same factories/mines get similar cancers o Wildlife exposed to certain environments get similar cancers • What are the major causes of cancer? o Peto and Doll (1980) § 30% smoking § 35% diet § 20% genetics § 5% virus can induce § 2-‐5% due to environmental factors** o Ames and Gold (1997) § 1/3 smoking (90% of all lung cancer) § Dietary imbalances: lack sufficient fruits and veggies (25% of population eating fewest of these items twice as likely to get cancer than 25% eating most) § Chronic infections and inflammation § Background damage to DNA (accumulates with age) •
Hormones -‐ partly induced by lifestyle (alcohol, contraceptives, etc) § Least important: occupation, sun exposure, pollution (air, water, toxics)
• Conventional wisdom is that one’s lifestyle is the major cause of cancer • Want to avoid cancer? Eat less red meat, lower on food chain, do not smoke, avoid veggies with natural carcinogens • Is there anything wrong with Ames and Gold’s compartmentalization of the causes of cancer?
• Is diet independent of the “environment”? o Why is it so hard to pinpoint cause of cancer to environmental pollution (chemicals, etc) o Many interrelated factors (synergisms) o Exposure to many different chemicals o Latency period (timing of exposure) o Lack of data (why?) o Human testing almost impossible Case study: Endocrine disruptors • Endocrine disruption: certain chemicals linked with known carcinogens that alter or disturb hormones or endocrine system
• Endocrine disruptors “trick (“xeno” or false endocrines) body into believing they are supposed to play a role in bodies functions” -‐ “sabotage normal bodily functions” (Krimsky 2001) • Disruptors mimic or obstruct role of natural hormones
• No single mechanism or pattern to interference or disruption • Impacts on humans:
o Sperm count declines, cancer incidence (breast, testicular and prostate), neurological disorders o Estrogens known to activate growth of certain classes of cancer cells o Linked to organochlorines that function as xeno-‐endocrines § Bisphenol (BPA) • Endocrine disruptors challenge conventional notion that “the dose makes the poison” o Linear or monolithic dose-‐response curve? o Is dose as important as the timing of the dose? §
Endocrine disruptors challenge conventional notion that toxic chemicals destroy cells and organs (like cancer is often perceived) o May at high doses be lethal but at lower doses can sabotage important and normal functions o EX: can damage computer by smashing it OR releasing virus that fools the computer • Endocrine disruptors challenge convention notion that cancer is the most sensitive indicator of potential harm to humans and environment o Effects of endocrine disruption can occur at ppb (levels already in the environment) rather than ppm with cancer o Will this help set new human exposure standards? • The appeal of risk assessment o Attempts to be systematic and knowledge-‐based rather than piecemeal, emotional or political
(rationalized on “sound science”) o Allows us to COMPARE risks (in theory) § (cannot deal with all risks given limited resources – so identify and address the biggest ones) Problems with risk assessment?
• 1) Risk is often hard to assess – are we capable of doing this?
• 2) Do we have enough information?
o 80,000 plus synthetic chemicals -‐ only couple dozen have human profiles o Lack data on 93% of all high production chemicals (HPV) produced or imported into US
§ Quantities of 1,000,000 lbs. or more § 2,200 different chemicals • 3) Assessing risk fraught with uncertainty o Can we define a “safe level of exposure” or threshold?
o Are some poisons damaging in any amount?
• Can cumulative risk be quantified or assessed by adding up assessments of individual chemicals?
o May find safe levels for each but ignore synergism o Difficult to consider multiple causality or model two chemicals at the same time • 4.) Risk to what?
o Human health? Economic well-‐being? Ecological damage?
o Not only hard to measure and lack information but hard to difficult to compare these kinds of risks.
o How many estimated deaths avoided equal a billion dollars loss of profits to a regulated industry? § Should we make these judgments? • 5) Risk to whom?
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o How is the risk distributed?
o Discrimination against certain groups -‐ when you disaggregate risk what do you get?
o Are all 300 “anticipated deaths” for the US distributed equally across population?
o Is the standard the greatest good for the greatest number? (i.e. utilitarianism) o Is the standard to protect the most vulnerable first?
o Or another standard?
6) Does it matter if people choose risk or have it thrust upon them?
o Smoking vs. second hand (or even third-‐hand smoke) o Is the issue risk or the imposition of risk that has not been freely chosen? o What should the regulatory standard be? § “No risk” rule – zero tolerance policy • Risk-‐free or banned • Food additives at any dose even ppb?
o “Threshold” rule – differentiate acceptable from unacceptable risk o “Margin of safety” rule – establish best guess on risk then establish buffer just in case Given uncertainty – where should the burden of proof lie?
o Proof of harm principle (acting when – and only when, we are certain there’s a problem) – burden on those claiming harm o Precautionary principle (acting under scientific uncertainty – might be a problem) – burden on those claiming no harm
ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT •
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Sustainablity:
o Ability of natural systems and human cultural systems and economies to survive and adapt to changing environmental conditions o Ability to meet current and future needs of all people in a just and equitable manner without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their basic needs Environmental justice represented the coming together of many social movement “streams” -‐-‐ civil rights, anti-‐toxics, cultural survival, labor movement, peace, anti-‐nuclear, environmental, etc. Social justice: principles that should govern the basic structure of a society, focusing on the distribution of rights, opportunities and resources among human beings (Carter 2008) Environmental justice: situation in which “no people, regardless of race, national origin, or income, are forced to shoulder an unequal [environmental] burden and all are treated fairly with regard to enforcement of environmental regulations” (EPA 1994) o Can refer to “domination, exploitation and injustices of many kinds” (Montague 2002)
**Bullards 5 principals** • The Right to Protection – “the right to be protected from environmental degradation” • The Prevention of Harm -‐-‐ “prevention, the elimination of the threat before harm occurs, should be the preferred strategy of governments” • Shift the Burden of Proof – “burden of proof must be shifted to the polluters who do harm, discriminate or do not give equal protection to minorities and other overburdened classes.” • Obviate Proof of Intent – laws should allow for “disparate impact and statistical weight as opposed to intent to infer discrimination” • Redress Inequities – “disproportionate impacts must be redressed by targeting action and resources”
*** QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER ***
• What is the central “climate change” issue and why?
• What policy, activity or initiative would help move us in the “right direction”? Does it fall under adaptation or mitigation
• What are the temporal and spatial dimensions of your policy, activity or initiative? (read: impact at what level) • Do you think BIG or begin small? Why?
• How does your policy, activity or initiative help to “constrain our future selves? • What model of policy or social change do you borrow from the most? Which do you feel has the best chance of “success” • How do we measure “success” in addressing climate change? (something to ask Bill McKibben?)
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