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drones market research
BI Intelligence
BII Mobile

DRONES: Quickly Navigating
Toward Commercial Application,
Starting With E-Commerce And
Retail
Ross Rubin | January 23, 2014

Global Aerial Drone Market
$14

Billions Of U.S. Dollars

$12
$10
$8
$6
$4

$2
$0
2013

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E
Civilian

2018E

2019E

2020E

2021E

Defense

Sources: Teal Group, Michael Toscano, BI Intelligence Estimates

Business Insider
Copyright © 2014, Business Insider, Inc. All rights reserved. intelligence@businessinsider.com

2022E

2023E

DRONES: Quickly Navigating
Toward Commercial Application,
Starting With E-Commerce And
Retail
Ross Rubin | January 23, 2014

KEY POINTS








The regulatory and technical hurdles for widespread commercial drone applications are numerous, but not insurmountable. American regulators plan to phase in commercial drone flights beginning in 2015, starting with limited flights of small drones weighing 55 pounds or less.
Retail and e-commerce — along with the related logistics and shipping industries — arguably have the most at stake in the wide deployment of civilian and commercial unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs. Drones might be the missing link in the shipping chain that allows for nearly immediate e-commerce deliveries. Amazon's
“Prime Air” drone delivery research program aims at deliveries 30 minutes after a customer order is placed.
Currently, military applications dominate the global UAV market, but commercial applications will quickly ramp up over the next 10 years, particularly after 2020. We estimate that 12% of an estimated $98 billion in cumulative spending on aerial drones over the next decade will be for commercial purposes.
Privacy and safety concerns still pose the risk of chilling commercial drone flights in many markets, but if UAVs are rolled out gradually we believe the benefits of drone-powered commercial applications such as environmental monitoring and shipping will ultimately win public opinion over.

INTRODUCTION
Not too long ago, when most
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