Demographics of Southeast Asia

Introduction

Post World War II, women in Southeast Asia were having an average of more than five children each, and there was a widespread of a “population explosion” in the region. Similar to other parts of the world, the baby boom trend also existed in this region as Southeast Asia countries are also slowly recovering from the results of the war and momentum is gaining for independence and economic development. Today, however, birth rates are reversed, especially in developed countries in Asia such as Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, which are among the lowest birth rates in the world. The trend is also beginning to be seen in developing countries in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, especially in the urban, city areas. Besides a lower birth rate, devloping nations in Southeast Asia are also experiencing a shrinking workforce as a result of an aging population.

In this essay, I am going to highlight on some of the significant population statistics, discussing the reasons of the demographics change and their implications, and also the responses and policies that each government has undertaken to address the issue and if they are successful. The countries that will be discussed in this essay will be Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand.

Demographics Statistics
As of December 2011, Singapore had 3.27 million Singapore Citizens and 0.54 million Permanent Residents. Together, they made up the resident population of 3.81 million. There was also the nonresident population of 1.46 million who are working, studying or living in Singapore on a non-permanent basis. Singapore’s total population on that year was 5.26 million (NPTD, 2012). The numbers of nonresident made up almost a quarter of the total population. The figures are alarmingly high compared to other countries in this region as Singapore’s economy is very much dependent on a young and vibrant workforce to support its aging population. Over 900,000 or 25 percent of the citizens are people from the Baby Boomers generation and they will turn 65 years old from 2012 onwards. This is one key concern as this group of seniors will slowly retire from the workforce and enter their silver years. Apart from an aging population, Singapore is also experiencing low fertility rate. According to the World Bank Data (2012), Singapore’s total fertility rate is at 1.2, which is one of the lowest in the world. Similarly to other developed nations in Asia, such as Japan and Hong Kong, our declining birth rates are due to rising singlehood, later marriage and married couples delaying their plans for children. Broader social and economical factors also affect marriage and parenthood decision. With a population that is aging accompanied with lower birth rates, Singapore face the prospect of a shrinking and aging citizen population and workfoce.

In Malaysia, the total population was 28.3 million, compared with 23.3 million in 2000. The proportio of population aged 65 year old and above increased to 5.1 percent as compared with 3.9 percent in 2000. The median age increased from 23.6 years in 2000 to 26.2 years in 2010, while the dependency ration dropped from 59.2 percent to 48.5 percent (Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2010). Based upon the projection rate and current trend, the Malaysian population is expected to reach 35 million by 2020, with 3.4 million being senior citizens (Malaysia Today, 2011), which made up 10 percent of the total population. The demographics changes have indicated there is a transition of age structure towards aging population of Malaysia.

The estimated population in Thailand is 64 million of which 9.3 million live in Bangkok and its vicinities (United Nations, n.d.). The annual population growth rate is 0.5 percent nationwide but with a higher percentage (1.6 percent) in urban Bangkok. According to Jones (2011), Thailand is experiencing a fertility transition, with the average number of children born to the average woman declining from about six to two between 1970s and 1990s. Fertility rates have also gone lower, standing at around 30 percent below replacement level. This major change in demographics may result in slower population growth in the next decades. Decline in fertility rate coupled with an aging population and also a negative net migration compared to other countries may result Thailand’s workforce feeling more crunch to support the social welfare and benefits for the senior citizens.

Reasons for Aging Population and Declining Birthrate in Singapore
There is a similarity between the three case study countries that is an aging population. Today, Southeast Asia’s senior citizens are concentrated primarily in the younger segments of the old-age population group. Over time, the greatest increases in population will occur in the oldest age group. However for Singapore, besides an ageing population, it has also need to address its falling birthrate. Using Singapore as an example, certain population policies that the government had introduced resulted in the current demographics that we have seen today.

Singapore introduced the “Stop at Two Policy” in 1972 (Mui, n.d.), aimed at encouraging married couples to have only two children as the first batch of baby boom women entered adulthood. Fearing that there could be a second baby boom and may give stress to the developing Singapore, abortion and sterilisation are encouraged for women who have given birth to their second child. Monetary incentives and paid leaves are also given to those who voluntarily undergo the procedure. However, the policy is also known to be too successful, and after a decade in place, a reverse policy was announced by then Deputy Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong with the “three, or more if you can afford it” policy, aimed at encouraging educated women to bear more children. This is so as the government is observing that educated women are delaying their marriages and also having fewer children to concentrate on their careers resulting them being “under-produced”, while those who are less educated “over-reproduced”. In order to inject more “quality” into the population, this policy was introduced, amidst with a lot of criticism.

As the demographics transited, coupled with a more educated population and vibrant economy, lesser Singaporeans felt the urge to settle down earlier and start their family. Similar to many developed countries, Singapore begin to see coupled marrying later, having less children and as the post war babies ages, the population becomed aged.

Policy Introduced by Southeast Asia Governments
For society as a whole, a declining birthrate and an aging population means an increasing tax and economic burden to the working-age population. A shrinking and aging population could also mean a less vibrant and innovative economy. There will be a shrinking customer base, and companies may find the country less attractive as they could not find adequate manpower. An aging population coupled with increased longevity will lead to higher national healthcare and long-term care expenditure for the elderly, this will result in a bigger burden by government.

To ensure healthier demographics in Singapore, a sustainable vision was introduced for Singaporeans, with the aspects being (1) A Strong and Cohesive Society, (2) A Good Quality Living Environment, (3) A Sustainable and Vibrant Economy. In order to fulfil its vision, the Singapore Government encourages marriage and parenthood through measures like subsidised housing, financial support for children’s development, enhancing accessibility, affordability and quality of pre-school activities and facilitating work-life balance (NPTD, 2012). The Marriage and Parenthood Package was introduced in 2001, and last enhanced in 2008 to a budget of $1.6 billion a year. To cushion the impact of fewer working population, the government is also actively wooing regional workers to work and set up their family here by attracting them and enable them to become permanent residents when they fulfill the criterias.

In Malaysia, the government is also making urgent improvements in social and welfare facilities to cope with the aging population such as endorsing the Senior Citizens Action Plan. The plan includes enhancing the respect and self-worth of the elderly; create opportunities for them to continue to be self-reliant; and encourage the creation of specific facilities to ensure the care and protection of the elderly (Lee, 1999). Besides putting forward their vision, there are also plans to build up the number of geriatric specialists to 700 by 2020 from 21 local geriatric specialists currently.

In Thailand, to address the challenges arising from aging population, the Thai government formulated the Second National Plan for Older Persons. This plan focuses on the preparation for quality ageing, the well being of older persons, social security for older persons and research to support policies and programmes. The government also provides social welfare assistance of 300 baht per month to older persons having an annual income of less than 10,000 baht. Working adults who take care of their old parents have been given tax exemptions; public healthcare is also made widely available to reach out for those who are low income and in need of it (UNFPA, 2006).

Conclusion
Unlike Malaysia and Thailand, whereby the government will only need to provide social and welfare benefits and facilities to cater to the ageing population, Singapore also need to address its falling birthrate as the population struggles to replace itself.

There are many criticisms on the Singapore government of not addressing the issue of falling birthrate and simply solving the problem by importing skilled workers to replace its reducing workforce. However, it is also worthy to note that Singapore have taken great lengths and put in efforts to meet the demands for housing, transport and public services to improve the quality of life for Singaporeans, and in turn, hoping to reverse the trend of falling birthrate.

As pointed out in the white paper to a Singapore population of 6.5 million, it is important that governments plan ahead and anticipate population changes and demographics transitions. Without planning ahead, lack of infrastructure support and a good social and welfare system, it will worsen the impact of what ageing population and falling birth rate problems can bring along to the society.

References:

National Population and Talent Division. (2012). Our population our future. Retrieved from https://www.nptd.gov.sg/content/NPTD/news/_jcr_content/par_content/download_67/file.res/Issues%20Paper%20-%20Our%20Population%20Our%20Future.pdf

Fertility rate, total (births per woman). (2012). Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

Department of Statistics Malaysia. (2010). Population distribution and basic demographic characteristic report 2010. Retrieved from http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&id=1215

Malaysia prepares for ageing nation as world population reaches seven billion. (25 Aug, 2011). Retrieved from http://www.malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/newscommentaries/43055-malaysia-prepares-for-ageing-nation-as-world-population-reaches-seven-billion

Thailand Country Profile. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=THAILAND#Social

Jones, G. (29 Dec, 2011). Bearing the consequences of population policy in Thailand. Retrieved from http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/12/29/bearing-the-consequences-of-population-policy-in-thailand/

Mui Teng Yap. (n.d.). Fertility and population policy: the Singapore experience. Journal of population and social security (population), vol 1, p. 643. Retrieved from http://lgdata.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/docs/1492/432538/Sing_popn_yap.pdf

Lee Lam Thye. (Oct 11, 1999). Giving senior citizens due consideration through action plan. News Straits Time, p. 13.

UNFPA Thailand. (2006). Population ageing in Thailand: Prognosis and policy response. Retrieved from http://thailand.unfpa.org/documents/thai_ageing_englishversion.pdf

References: National Population and Talent Division. (2012). Our population our future. Retrieved from https://www.nptd.gov.sg/content/NPTD/news/_jcr_content/par_content/download_67/file.res/Issues%20Paper%20-%20Our%20Population%20Our%20Future.pdf Fertility rate, total (births per woman). (2012). Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN Department of Statistics Malaysia. (2010). Population distribution and basic demographic characteristic report 2010. Retrieved from http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/index.php?option=com_content&id=1215 Malaysia prepares for ageing nation as world population reaches seven billion. (25 Aug, 2011). Retrieved from http://www.malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/newscommentaries/43055-malaysia-prepares-for-ageing-nation-as-world-population-reaches-seven-billion Thailand Country Profile. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=THAILAND#Social Jones, G. (29 Dec, 2011). Bearing the consequences of population policy in Thailand. Retrieved from http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/12/29/bearing-the-consequences-of-population-policy-in-thailand/ Mui Teng Yap. (n.d.). Fertility and population policy: the Singapore experience. Journal of population and social security (population), vol 1, p. 643. Retrieved from http://lgdata.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/docs/1492/432538/Sing_popn_yap.pdf Lee Lam Thye. (Oct 11, 1999). Giving senior citizens due consideration through action plan. News Straits Time, p. 13. UNFPA Thailand. (2006). Population ageing in Thailand: Prognosis and policy response. Retrieved from http://thailand.unfpa.org/documents/thai_ageing_englishversion.pdf