David Hume's An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding
Hume on Probability Hume begins section six of “An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding” by stated right out that chance does not exist, but is merely a result of our ignorance of the causes behind any given event. He argues this by relating probability and belief. Belief arises when probability is at its most high. According to chance, any event may turn out anyway. Hume illustrates his point with a die. If a die were marked with one figure on four sides, while another figure on the other two sides, then it would be most probable that the die would land on the former side. If, however, the die had a thousand sides marked in one manner and only one side marked differently, then the probability of landing on the former mark would be higher. As such, our belief or expectation of this result would be higher1. As the chance of landing on one side of the die increases, the probability of that result also increases, and as such our belief in that result increases. As experience tells us that one result is more probable then another, so our mind construes the belief in that result. The nature of belief is thus constructed, as an experiment is repeated (such as the tossing of the fictional thousand sided die) and the result shows itself to be the same more often then not, then the idea of obtaining that result becomes more concrete and
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One, is that all knowledge comes from experience. It is experience which tells us which result is most probable and so it is experience which shapes our beliefs. The second idea is that of determinism. If all causes have a certain result, and that result only differs when other causes interact with the initial cause (causes we may not be aware of) then Hume is saying that cause and effect is the most supreme theory. Everything comes down to the causes of the event. One cause causes another, which causes another, and so one infinitum. This, unless I am mistaken, is
One, is that all knowledge comes from experience. It is experience which tells us which result is most probable and so it is experience which shapes our beliefs. The second idea is that of determinism. If all causes have a certain result, and that result only differs when other causes interact with the initial cause (causes we may not be aware of) then Hume is saying that cause and effect is the most supreme theory. Everything comes down to the causes of the event. One cause causes another, which causes another, and so one infinitum. This, unless I am mistaken, is