Many scientists believed that Arrhenius?s calculations were too simple and that he had failed to include many factors?such as the potential ability of Earth?s vast bodies of saltwater to soak up huge volumes (as much as five-sixths) of the CO2 that was being generated. This led to the assumption that absorption by the oceans would significantly reduce the GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. In turn, this would then prevent any measurable increases in the planet?s annual average temperatures?at least for the next few thousand years or so!
After cold water was thrown on Arrhenius?s findings, the historic trail of the greenhouse effect hypothesis went cold for a few decades, until 1931, when American physicist Edward O. Hulburt picked up the ball and started running with it again. Hulburt revisited Arrhenius?s work, again testing what doubling the CO2 concentration would do to the temperature of Earth?s atmosphere. His calculations came up with a predicted increase of around 4?C (7.2?F) of global warming.
In the process, Hulburt discovered that the interception of reflected energy in infrared radiation was of key importance.[endnoteRef:10] Hulburt?s results received minimal attention from other scientists who were studying the climate. The prevailing thought continued to be that Earth?s climate system used some sort of natural balancing process to maintain itself. [10: . Ibid.