591b Malaysia Final Report 1
THE WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL’S GRADUATE POLICY WORKSHOP
ECONOMIC POLICY IN MALAYSIA: PATHS TO GROWTH
JANUARY 2014
AUTHORS:
ANDREW KIM
BRENDAN DUKE
CHANGHOON HA
GEORGE E. ECKERD
SEYRON FOO
ZARA QURESHI
PROJECT ADVISOR:
DR. IQBAL ZAIDI
2
Acknowledgements
The authors would first and foremost like to thank all the experts who graciously helped us by sharing their insights. We also wish to extend our special gratitude to our professor, Dr. Iqbal Zaidi for his continued support and guidance throughout the research and development of this report. Finally, we wish to thank the staff of the Woodrow Wilson School who made this workshop possible.
3
Figures
Figure 2.1: Malaysian Real GDP Growth (YoY)
Figure 2.2: Debt to GDP and Government Security Yields
Figure 2.3: Government Debt with Maturity Greater than 5 Years
Figure 2.4: Fiscal Decentralization Trend in Malaysia
Figure 5.1: Housing Price Change vs. Nominal GDP Growth in Malaysia (2009 Q1 - 2013 Q2)
Figure 5.2: Housing Price Changes in the Region
Figure 5.3: Household Debt to GDP Ratio
Figure 5.4: Household Debt to GDP Ratio: Malaysia vs. Selected OECD Countries that experienced housing boom followed by housing bust and large consumption loss
Figure 5.5: Household Debt to GDP in the Region
Figure 5.6: Typical Loan-to-Value Ratios (LTV) of New Housing Loans
Figure 5.7: Loans through Banking System/GDP
Figure 5.8: Housing Price Changes in Different Areas
Figure 6.1: Relationship between GDP per Capita and ECI
Figure 6.2: Services as Percentage of GDP (2005-2011 Average)
Figure 6.2: Service Exports as Percentage of Exports (2005-2011 Average)
Figure 8.1: Industry as Percentage of GDP (2005-2011 Average)
Figure 8.2: Manufacturing Exports as a Percent of Exports (2005-2011 Average)
Tables
Table 5.1: Impaired Loans Ratio in Malaysia
Table 8.1: Regression Results
Table 8.2: Regression Results
Table 8.3: Regression Results
Table 8.4: Regression Results
Boxes
Box 1: Technology and the IMF’s Recommendations on Fuel Subsidies
ECONOMIC POLICY IN MALAYSIA: PATHS TO GROWTH
JANUARY 2014
AUTHORS:
ANDREW KIM
BRENDAN DUKE
CHANGHOON HA
GEORGE E. ECKERD
SEYRON FOO
ZARA QURESHI
PROJECT ADVISOR:
DR. IQBAL ZAIDI
2
Acknowledgements
The authors would first and foremost like to thank all the experts who graciously helped us by sharing their insights. We also wish to extend our special gratitude to our professor, Dr. Iqbal Zaidi for his continued support and guidance throughout the research and development of this report. Finally, we wish to thank the staff of the Woodrow Wilson School who made this workshop possible.
3
Figures
Figure 2.1: Malaysian Real GDP Growth (YoY)
Figure 2.2: Debt to GDP and Government Security Yields
Figure 2.3: Government Debt with Maturity Greater than 5 Years
Figure 2.4: Fiscal Decentralization Trend in Malaysia
Figure 5.1: Housing Price Change vs. Nominal GDP Growth in Malaysia (2009 Q1 - 2013 Q2)
Figure 5.2: Housing Price Changes in the Region
Figure 5.3: Household Debt to GDP Ratio
Figure 5.4: Household Debt to GDP Ratio: Malaysia vs. Selected OECD Countries that experienced housing boom followed by housing bust and large consumption loss
Figure 5.5: Household Debt to GDP in the Region
Figure 5.6: Typical Loan-to-Value Ratios (LTV) of New Housing Loans
Figure 5.7: Loans through Banking System/GDP
Figure 5.8: Housing Price Changes in Different Areas
Figure 6.1: Relationship between GDP per Capita and ECI
Figure 6.2: Services as Percentage of GDP (2005-2011 Average)
Figure 6.2: Service Exports as Percentage of Exports (2005-2011 Average)
Figure 8.1: Industry as Percentage of GDP (2005-2011 Average)
Figure 8.2: Manufacturing Exports as a Percent of Exports (2005-2011 Average)
Tables
Table 5.1: Impaired Loans Ratio in Malaysia
Table 8.1: Regression Results
Table 8.2: Regression Results
Table 8.3: Regression Results
Table 8.4: Regression Results
Boxes
Box 1: Technology and the IMF’s Recommendations on Fuel Subsidies
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